HVRRF (Hannover Rueck SE) Predictability Rank


HVRRF Hannover Rueck SE HVRRF
76 GF Score
Price $270.00
GF Value $351.60
Valuation Modestly Undervalued
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What is Hannover Rueck SE Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Hannover Rueck SE Predictability Rank Related Terms

HVRRF
76GF Score
Hannover Rueck SE HVRRF
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Hannover Rueck SE Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Hannover Rueck SE (HVRRF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Hannover Rueck SE stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $270.00 is trading 23.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $351.60. GuruFocus considers Hannover Rueck SE to be Modestly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for HVRRF:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $351.60 vs. price of $270.00 (23.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 76/100

No single metric tells the full story. See the HVRRF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Hannover Rueck SE Business Description

Address Karl-Wiechert-Allee 50, Hannover, NI, DEU, 30625
Hannover Re is a reinsurance company headquartered in Hannover, Germany. Its roots go back to the 1920s when, in conjunction with the Gerling Group, Haftpflichtverband founded Eisen- und Stahl-Industrie to provide reinsurance services. In the 1960s ownership of the business was turned over to Haftpflichtverband, and Aktiengesellschaft für Transport und- Rückversicherung was founded. This was the basis of Hannover Re. The business expanded into life and health reinsurance in the 1990s, and over the next 30 years expanded beyond its core domestic market of Germany to write business internationally. Hannover sold its commercial specialty insurance business to Talanx in January 2019. Hannover was listed in the 1990s on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange.
76GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$270.00
Price
$351.60
GF Value