PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is PennyMac Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PennyMac Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PennyMac Financial Services Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PennyMac Financial Services Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » PennyMac Financial Services Inc (NYSE:PFSI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3043 Townsgate Road, Suite 200, Westlake Village, CA, USA, 91361

Website

https://ir.pennymacfinancial.com

PennyMac Financial Services Inc is a specialty financial services firm with a comprehensive mortgage platform and integrated business focused on the production and servicing of U.S. residential mortgage loans. The company operates through two segments: production and servicing. The production segment performs loan origination, acquisition and sale activities. The servicing segment performs loan servicing for newly originated loans.

Executives

Daniel Stanley Perotti	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, MOORPARK CA 93021
David Spector	director, officer: Chairman & CEO	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, UPPER LEVEL, MOORPARK CA 93021
Joseph F Mazzella	director	C/O HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Doug Jones	officer: Chief Mtge Bnkg Ofcr	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, UPPER LEVEL, MOORPARK CA 93021
Derek Stark	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4500 PARK GRANADA, CALABASAS CA 91302
James Follette	officer: Chief Mort Fulfillment Off.	PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Gregory L Hendry	officer: MD, Chief Accounting Officer	3300 LAKE AVENUE, ALTADENA CA 91001
Steven Richard Bailey	officer: Chief Servicing Officer	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, MOORPARK CA 93021
James K Hunt	director	THL CREDIT GROUP, 100 FEDERAL STREET, 35TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Anne Mccallion	director	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, UPPER LEVEL, MOORPARK CA 93021
William Herbert Chang	officer: Chief Capital Markets Officer	PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Patrick Kinsella	director	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, MOORPARK CA 93021
Donald J. White	officer: Chief Risk Officer	PENNYMAC FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 3043 TOWNSGATE ROAD, WESTLAKE VILLAGE CA 91361
Vandad Fartaj	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O PENNYMAC, 6101 CONDOR DRIVE, UPPER LEVEL, MOORPARK CA 93021
Farhad Nanji	director	C/O HIGHFIELDS CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LP, 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116