TVLF (Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings) Predictability Rank


TVLF Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Inc TVLF
59 GF Score
Price $10.00
GF Value $7.19
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

TVLF
59GF Score
Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Inc TVLF
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings (TVLF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $10.00 is trading 39.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $7.19. GuruFocus considers Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TVLF:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $7.19 vs. price of $10.00 (39.1% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 59/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the TVLF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Business Description

Address 401 South Illinois Avenue, Oak Ridge, TN, USA, 37830
Tennessee Valley Financial Holdings Inc is a bank holding company. It provides a variety of financial services to individuals and corporate customers at its offices in Oak Ridge, Knoxville and Maryville, Tennessee. The bank's deposit products are interest-bearing demand deposits and certificates of deposit. Its lending products are commercial, residential, and consumer loans. Its loan portfolio includes Speculative Residential Real Estate, Commercial Real Estate, Residential Real Estate, Home Equity, Commercial, and Consumer.
59GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TVLF

Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$10.00
Price
$7.19
GF Value