UTG (UTGN) Predictability Rank

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What is UTG Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

UTG Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

UTG Predictability Rank Related Terms

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UTG Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » UTG Inc (OTCPK:UTGN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

205 North Depot Street, Stanford, KY, USA, 40484

Website

https://www.utgins.com

UTG Inc is a life insurance holding company. Along with its subsidiaries, its primary business is individual life insurance which includes the servicing of existing insurance business in force and the acquisition of other companies in the insurance business, and administration processing of life insurance business for other entities. Its product offering is the Tradition policy which is a fixed premium whole life insurance policy. Premiums are level and payable for life. Issue ages are 0-75. The second is the annuity product, which is a five-year, single premium product. The company's investment portfolio consists of fixed maturities, equity securities, trading securities, mortgage loans, notes receivable and real estate to provide funding for future policy contractual obligations.

Executives

First Southern Funding Llc	10 percent owner
Jesse T Correll	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman & CEO
Casey Jonathan Willis	officer: Vice President	205 NORTH DEPOT STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
Daniel T Roberts	officer: Vice President	205 NORTH DEPOT STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
Bradley John Betack	officer: Secretary	205 NORTH DEPOT STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
John Cortines	director	205 NORTH DEPOT STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
Preston Howard Correll	director	205 NORTH DEPOT STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
April Chapman	director	205 NORTH DEPOT STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
Cumberland Lake Shell Inc	10 percent owner	PO BOX 430, SOMERSET KY 42502
Kirk A. Correll	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 328, 99 LANCASTER STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
Estate Of Ward F. Correll	10 percent owner	P.O. BOX 328, 99 LANCASTER STREET, STANFORD KY 40484
James Patrick Rousey	director, officer: President	5250 SOUTH SIXTH STREET, SPRINGFIELD IL 62703
Douglas Paul Ditto	officer: Vice President	5250 SOUTH SIXTH STREET, SPRINGFIELD IL 62703
Thomas Eugene Harmon	director	5250 SOUTH SIXTH STREET, SPRINGFIELD IL 62703
Gabriel John Molnar	director	12910 SHELBYVILLE RD #200, LOUISVILLE KY 40243

UTG Headlines

From GuruFocus

Utg Inc (UTGN) Chairman & CEO Jesse T Correll Bought $1.2 million of Shares

By GuruFocus Research GuruFocus Editor • 08-17-2020