Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
American Express CoXSWX:AXP +0.68%80 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 18.65% as of Mar. 2026, which is 21% above its 10-year median of 15.38. GuruFocus rates XSWX:AXP with a GF Score™ of 80/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF261.84. The stock has 4 warning signs investors should review. Among 390 Credit Services companies, American Express Co ranks better than 70.26% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. American Express Co's forward rate of return for was 18.65%.
The historical rank and industry rank for American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:AXP'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 11.86 Med: 15.38 Max: 20.5
Current: 17.58
During the past 13 years, American Express Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 20.50. The lowest was 11.86. And the median was 15.38.
XSWX:AXP's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 70.26% of 390
companies
in the Credit Services industry
Industry Median: 4.825
vs XSWX:AXP: 17.58
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
American Express Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
American Express Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
American Express Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
XSWX:AXP vs COF, PYPL, AFRM: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Credit Services subindustry, American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
American Express Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Credit Services Industry
For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
American Express Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 18.65% mean?
American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 18.65% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on American Express Co and its competitors. This is 21% above median its historical median of 15.38. Over the past decade, American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 11.86 to 20.50. According to the industry distribution chart, American Express Co ranks #116 out of 390 companies in the Credit Services industry, placing it in the top 29.7%.
Is American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
American Express Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 18.65% is 21% above median its 10-year median of 15.38. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 11.86 to a high of 20.50. The Credit Services industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.83. American Express Co's value of 18.65% is 286.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, American Express Co ranks #116 out of 390 companies in the Credit Services industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, American Express Co has a GF Score™ of 80/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does American Express Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to COF and PYPL?
According to the Credit Services industry distribution chart, American Express Co ranks #116 out of 390 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts American Express Co in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.83. American Express Co's value of 18.65% is 286.5% above this benchmark. Historically, American Express Co's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 11.86 to 20.50 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 15.38 vs. the industry median of 4.83, American Express Co has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Credit Services company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Credit Services companies is 4.83, based on 390 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. American Express Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 18.65% is 286.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on American Express Co and its competitors. For the Credit Services industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 4.83 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. American Express Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 18.65%, which is 21% above median its own 10-year median of 15.38. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is American Express Co stock overvalued right now?
American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) has a current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 18.65%. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF261.84, compared to a current price of CHF290.55 — trading 11% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 18.65%, which is 21% above median its 10-year median of 15.38 and 286.5% above the Credit Services industry median of 4.83. American Express Co's overall GF Score™ is 80/100 with 4 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For American Express Co (XSWX:AXP), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 18.65% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, American Express Co stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF290.55 is trading 11% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF261.84.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:AXP:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 18.65% (21% above median its 10-year median of 15.38)
GF Value™: CHF261.84 vs. price of CHF290.55 (11% above fair value)
Industry Position: 286.5% above the Credit Services median (#116 of 390)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:AXP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company also operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. It operates in four segments: US consumer services, US commercial services, international card services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company's commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.
80GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:AXP
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
XSWX:AXP has been successfully added to your 
