Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
American Express CoXSWX:AXP +0.29%83 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF297.27 as of Jul. 30, 2026, which is 100% below its 10-year median of 0.77. GuruFocus rates XSWX:AXP with a GF Score™ of 83/100 and a GF Value™ of CHF267.91. The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review. Among 316 Credit Services companies, American Express Co ranks worse than 57.28% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-07-30), American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF297.27. The stock price of American Express Co is CHF273.75. Therefore, American Express Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.9.
The historical rank and industry rank for American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
XSWX:AXP'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.52 Med: 0.77 Max: 1.13
Current: 0.92
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of American Express Co was 1.13. The lowest was 0.52. And the median was 0.77.
XSWX:AXP's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 57.28% of 316
companies
in the Credit Services industry
Industry Median: 0.715
vs XSWX:AXP: 0.92
American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
American Express Co's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
273.75
/
316.55387808363
=
0.86
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
American Express Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
American Express Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
American Express Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
XSWX:AXP vs COF, PYPL, SYF: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Credit Services subindustry, American Express Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
American Express Co Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Credit Services Industry
For the Credit Services industry and Financial Services sector, American Express Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where American Express Co's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
American Express Co Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF297.27 mean?
American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF297.27 as of Jul. 30, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on American Express Co and its competitors. This is 38506% above median its historical median of 0.77. Over the past decade, American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.52 to 1.13. According to the industry distribution chart, American Express Co ranks #181 out of 316 companies in the Credit Services industry, placing it in the top 57.3%.
Is American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
American Express Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF297.27 is 38506% above median its 10-year median of 0.77. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.52 to a high of 1.13. Based on the distribution chart, American Express Co ranks #181 out of 316 companies in the Credit Services industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, American Express Co has a GF Score™ of 83/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does American Express Co's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to COF and PYPL?
According to the Credit Services industry distribution chart, American Express Co ranks #181 out of 316 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places American Express Co in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.72. Historically, American Express Co's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.52 to 1.13 over the past decade. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Credit Services company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Credit Services companies is 0.72, based on 316 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on American Express Co and its competitors. For the Credit Services industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.72 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. American Express Co's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF297.27, which is 38506% above median its own 10-year median of 0.77. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is American Express Co stock overvalued right now?
American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) has a current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of CHF297.27. The stock's GF Value™ is CHF267.91, compared to a current price of CHF273.75 — trading 2.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF297.27, which is 38506% above median its 10-year median of 0.77. American Express Co's overall GF Score™ is 83/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For American Express Co (XSWX:AXP), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is CHF297.27 as of Jul. 30, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is American Express Co (XSWX:AXP) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, American Express Co stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of CHF273.75 is trading 2.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of CHF267.91.
Key valuation signals for XSWX:AXP:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: CHF297.27 (38506% above median its 10-year median of 0.77)
GF Value™: CHF267.91 vs. price of CHF273.75 (2.2% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the XSWX:AXP stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
American Express is a global financial institution, operating in about 130 countries, that provides consumers and businesses charge and credit card payment products. The company also operates a highly profitable merchant payment network. It operates in four segments: US consumer services, US commercial services, international card services, and global merchant and network services. In addition to payment products, the company's commercial business offers expense management tools, consulting services, and business loans.
83GF Score
Get the complete analysis for XSWX:AXP
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
XSWX:AXP has been successfully added to your 
