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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Mashreqbank PSC (DFM:MASQ) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Mashreqbank PSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
Mashreqbank PSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Mashreqbank PSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Mashreqbank PSC Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.53
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% mean?
Mashreqbank PSC (DFM:MASQ) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% as of Jul. 16, 2026.
Is Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Mashreqbank PSC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Overall, Mashreqbank PSC has a GF Score™ of 68/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Mashreqbank PSC's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Mashreqbank PSC's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Mashreqbank PSC stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Mashreqbank PSC (DFM:MASQ) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is د.إ230.54, compared to a current price of د.إ257.00 — trading 11.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Mashreqbank PSC's overall GF Score™ is 68/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Mashreqbank PSC (DFM:MASQ), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jul. 16, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Mashreqbank PSC (DFM:MASQ) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Mashreqbank PSC stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of د.إ257.00 is trading 11.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of د.إ230.54.
GuruFocus considers Mashreqbank PSC to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for DFM:MASQ:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05%
GF Value™: د.إ230.54 vs. price of د.إ257.00 (11.5% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the DFM:MASQ stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Mashreqbank PSC is a banking corporation that provides banking and financial services to customers and businesses. The banking firm serves in domestic markets as well as abroad, mainly with its commercial and retail banking services such as trade finance, project finance, savings and current accounts, fixed deposits, and Mashreq millionaire deposits. The business segments are Wholesale, Retail, Treasury and capital markets, Insurance, and other. The bank's entities include Mashreq Capital, Sukoon Insurance, and Mashreq's fintech and digital innovation platform focused on developing next-generation financial solutions. The group's activities are carried out through its branches in the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Egypt, Hong Kong, India, Pakistan, Qatar, the UK, and the USA.
68GF Score
Get the complete analysis for DFM:MASQ
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