LOB (Live Oak Bancshares) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


LOB Live Oak Bancshares Inc LOB
70 GF Score
Price $40.26
GF Value $42.59
Valuation Fairly Valued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Live Oak Bancshares Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Live Oak Bancshares LOB -0.11% 70 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus rates LOB with a GF Score™ of 70/100 and a GF Value™ of $42.59 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Live Oak Bancshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Live Oak Bancshares  (NYSE:LOB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Live Oak Bancshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

LOB vs CHCO, SRCE, CASH: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Live Oak Bancshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Live Oak Bancshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Live Oak Bancshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Live Oak Bancshares's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


LOB
70GF Score
Live Oak Bancshares Inc LOB
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Live Oak Bancshares Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.37

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% mean?
Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Live Oak Bancshares' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Live Oak Bancshares' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Overall, Live Oak Bancshares has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Live Oak Bancshares' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CHCO and SRCE?
Live Oak Bancshares' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.06% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Live Oak Bancshares's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Live Oak Bancshares stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $42.59, compared to a current price of $40.26 — trading 5.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%. Live Oak Bancshares' overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Live Oak Bancshares (LOB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Live Oak Bancshares (LOB) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Live Oak Bancshares stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $40.26 is trading 5.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of $42.59. GuruFocus considers Live Oak Bancshares to be Fairly Valued.

Key valuation signals for LOB:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.06%
  • GF Value™: $42.59 vs. price of $40.26 (5.5% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the LOB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Live Oak Bancshares Business Description

Address 1741 Tiburon Drive, Wilmington, NC, USA, 28403
Live Oak Bancshares Inc operates as the bank holding company for the Live Oak Banking Company. The company specializes in lending and deposit-related services to small businesses nationwide. The company identifies and extends lending to credit-worthy borrowers both within specific industries, also called verticals, through expertise within those industries, and more broadly to select borrowers outside of those industries. A portion of the loans originated by the Bank are partially guaranteed by the Small Business Administration under the 7(a) Loan Program and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Energy for America Program, Water and Environmental Program, Business and Industry and Community Facilities loan programs.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for LOB

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$40.26
Price
$42.59
GF Value