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Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Probability of Financial Distress (%)

: 0.02% (As of Today)
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Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Competitive Comparison

For the Insurance - Property & Casualty subindustry, Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Safety Insurance Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.



Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.36

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:


4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).


Safety Insurance Group  (NAS:SAFT) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Safety Insurance Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Business Description

Industry
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
20 Custom House Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110
Safety Insurance Group Inc is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The company also offers property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobiles, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies. It operates in the business segment of Property and casualty insurance operations.
Executives
Glenn Hiltpold officer: VP of Actuarial Services 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Brophy Charles Joseph Iii director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Dennis J. Langwell director C/O LIBERTY MUTUAL GROUP, 175 BERKELEY STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Srb Corp 10 percent owner 695 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02111
Peter J Manning director FLEETBOSTON FINANCIAL CORP, 100 FEDERAL STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Christopher Thomas Whitford officer: VP, CFO and Secretary 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Stephen Albert Varga officer: VP - MIS 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
James Berry officer: VP - Insurance Operations C/O SAFETY INSURANCE, 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Farina John Daniel Jr. director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE ST, BOSTON MA 02110
Deborah E Gray director 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Frederic H Lindeberg director C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Ann Marie Mckeown officer: V.P Insurance Operations 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Moran Mary Coffey director DANVERS BANCORP, INC., ONE CONANT STREET, DANVERS MA 01923
David E Krupa officer: VP - Property Claims
David D Mckown director