As of today (2026-06-29), The GEO Group's share price is MXN495.00. The GEO Group's GF Value is MXN268.53. Therefore, The GEO Group's Price-to-GF-Value for today is 1.84. Based on the relationship between the current stock price and the GF Value, GuruFocus believes The GEO Group is Significantly Overvalued.
The GF Value represents the intrinsic value of a stock, determined using GuruFocus' proprietary methodology. The GF Value Line on our stock Summary page provides an estimate of the stock’s fair-trading value.
To calculate this value, GuruFocus follows these steps:
We analyze historical correlations between the stock price and key business performance metrics, such as revenue, earnings, cash flow, and book value.
We identify the metrics that have the strongest historical correlation with the stock price and determine the historical multiples at which the stock has traded relative to these metrics.
Using these historical multiples as a reference, we estimate the stock's fair value while accounting for future business growth. Adjustments may be made based on the company’s past returns and growth trends.
GuruFocus believes that the GF Value Line represents the fair value at which a stock should trade. Stock prices typically fluctuate around this line. If a stock’s price is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is considered overvalued, and its future returns are likely to be lower. Conversely, if the stock price is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future returns are likely to be higher.
The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) GF Value Explanation
Based on the relationship between the current stock price and the GF Value, GuruFocus provides the following 6 ratings:
(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our GF Valuation filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab, and Price-to-GF-Value filter under Valuation Ratio tab and set your own criteria.
(2) A sufficient margin of safety exists only when the stock is undervalued.
Possible Value Trap, Think Twice companies are those that appear significantly undervalued based on their Price-to-GF-Value ratio, but whose fundamentals show signs of weakness.
Indicators that a company may be a value trap include:
* Deteriorating Financial Health: A low Altman Z-scores indicates a higher risk of bankruptcy, or a low Piotroski F-Score. * Earnings Manipulation: A high Beneish M-score indicates potential earnings manipulation, raising concerns about the reliability of reported financials. * Stagnant or Declining Growth: Lack of revenue or earnings growth, or a recent slowdown, may signal limited future prospects.
Investors should conduct thorough due diligence, examining financial statements and growth indicators, to avoid falling into value traps.
The GEO Group's Price-to-GF-Value for today is calculated as
Price-to-GF-Value
=
Share Price
/
GF Value
=
495.00
/
268.53
=
1.84
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) has a GF Value of MXN268.53 as of Jun. 29, 2026. GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors.
Is The GEO Group's GF Value too high?
The GEO Group's current GF Value is MXN268.53. Overall, The GEO Group has a GF Score™ of 54/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The GEO Group's GF Value compare to BCO and BRC?
The GEO Group's GF Value of MXN268.53 can be compared against companies in the Business Services industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good GF Value for a Business Services company?
A good GF Value depends on the Business Services industry context. However, GF Value should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high GF Value mean?
A high GF Value can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. GF Value represents the current intrinsic value of a stock derived from our exclusive method. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. The GEO Group's current GF Value is MXN268.53. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The GEO Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN268.53, compared to a current price of MXN495.00 — trading 84.3% above its estimated fair value. The current GF Value is MXN268.53. The GEO Group's overall GF Score™ is 54/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is GF Value calculated?
GF Value is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1), the current GF Value is MXN268.53 as of Jun. 29, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN495.00 is trading 84.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN268.53.
GuruFocus considers The GEO Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:GEO1:
GF Value: MXN268.53
GF Value™: MXN268.53 vs. price of MXN495.00 (84.3% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:GEO1 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services. The company operates in U.S, Australia and South Africa.
54GF Score
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