The GEO GroupMEX:GEO1 54 Altman Z-Score is 2.40 as of Jul. 01, 2026, which is 83% above its 10-year median of 1.31. GuruFocus rates MEX:GEO1 with a GF Score™ of 54/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN276.56 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,060 Business Services companies, The GEO Group ranks worse than 59.81% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Warning Sign:
Altman Z-score of 2.41 is in the grey area. This implies that the company is under some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.8, the company may face bankruptcy risk.
The GEO Group has a Altman Z-Score of 2.40, indicating it is in Grey Zones. This implies that The GEO Group is in some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.81, the company may face bankrupcy risk.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
MEX:GEO1'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.9 Med: 1.31 Max: 2.41
Current: 2.41
During the past 13 years, The GEO Group's highest Altman Z-Score was 2.41. The lowest was 0.90. And the median was 1.31.
The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) Altman Z-Score Explanation
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
The GEO Group Altman Z-Score Related Terms
The GEO Group Altman Z-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MEX:GEO1 vs BCO, BRC, ADT: Altman Z-Score Comparison
For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The GEO Group Altman Z-Score vs Business Services Industry
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
1.2
*
X1
+
1.4
*
X2
+
3.3
*
X3
+
0.6
*
X4
+
1.0
*
X5
=
1.2
*
0.0788
+
1.4
*
0.0872
+
3.3
*
0.1396
+
0.6
*
1.6558
+
1.0
*
0.7267
=
2.40
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) has a Altman Z-Score of 2.40 as of Jul. 01, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. This is 83% above median its historical median of 1.31. Over the past decade, The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score has ranged from 0.90 to 2.41. According to the industry distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #634 out of 1060 companies in the Business Services industry, placing it in the top 59.8%.
Is The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score too high?
The GEO Group's current Altman Z-Score of 2.40 is 83% above median its 10-year median of 1.31. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.90 to a high of 2.41. The Business Services industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.96. The GEO Group's value of 2.40 is 18.8% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #634 out of 1060 companies in the Business Services industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, The GEO Group has a GF Score™ of 54/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The GEO Group's Altman Z-Score compare to BCO and BRC?
According to the Business Services industry distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #634 out of 1060 companies for Altman Z-Score. This places The GEO Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.96. The GEO Group's value of 2.40 is 18.8% below this benchmark. Historically, The GEO Group's own Altman Z-Score has ranged from 0.90 to 2.41 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.31 vs. the industry median of 2.96, The GEO Group has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for a Business Services company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Business Services companies is 2.96, based on 1,060 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. The GEO Group's current Altman Z-Score of 2.40 is 18.8% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. For the Business Services industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 2.96 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. The GEO Group's current Altman Z-Score is 2.40, which is 83% above median its own 10-year median of 1.31. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The GEO Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN276.56, compared to a current price of MXN495.00 — trading 79% above its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 2.40, which is 83% above median its 10-year median of 1.31 and 18.8% below the Business Services industry median of 2.96. The GEO Group's overall GF Score™ is 54/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1), the current Altman Z-Score is 2.40 as of Jul. 01, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN495.00 is trading 79% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN276.56.
GuruFocus considers The GEO Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:GEO1:
Altman Z-Score: 2.40 (83% above median its 10-year median of 1.31)
GF Value™: MXN276.56 vs. price of MXN495.00 (79% above fair value)
Industry Position: 18.8% below the Business Services median (#634 of 1060)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:GEO1 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services. The company operates in U.S, Australia and South Africa.
54GF Score
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