The GEO GroupMEX:GEO1 54 Beneish M-Score is -2.15 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus rates MEX:GEO1 with a GF Score™ of 54/100 and a GF Value™ of MXN268.42 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,020 Business Services companies, The GEO Group ranks worse than 75.2% on this metric.
The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
Good Sign:
Beneish M-Score -2.15 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The historical rank and industry rank for The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:
MEX:GEO1'
s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -3.24 Med: -2.62 Max: -1.48
Current: -2.15
During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of The GEO Group was -1.48. The lowest was -3.24. And the median was -2.62.
The GEO Group Beneish M-Score Related Terms
The GEO Group Beneish M-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MEX:GEO1 vs CXW, BRC, BCO: Beneish M-Score Comparison
For the Security & Protection Services subindustry, The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Beneish M-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The GEO Group Beneish M-Score vs Business Services Industry
For the Business Services industry and Industrials sector, The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score falls into.
The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.
The M-Score Variables:
The M-score of The GEO Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:
M
=
-4.84
+
0.92 * DSRI
+
0.528 * GMI
+
0.404 * AQI
+
0.892 * SGI
+
0.115 * DEPI
=
-4.84
+
0.92 * 1.265
+
0.528 * 1
+
0.404 * 0.9842
+
0.892 * 1.0398
+
0.115 * 0.8901
-
0.172 * SGAI
+
4.679 * TATA
-
0.327 * LVGI
-
0.172 * 0.9702
+
4.679 * -0.020736
-
0.327 * 0.9188
=
-2.29
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.
DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.
DEPI
=
(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1))
/
(Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=
(2519.306 / (2519.306 + 40732.297))
/
(2447.008 / (2447.008 + 34945.101))
=
0.058248
/
0.065442
=
0.8901
Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.
6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index
Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.
TATA
=
(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t
-
CashFlowsfromOperations_t)
/
TotalAssets_t
=
(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t
-
CashFlowsfromOperations_t)
/
TotalAssets_t
=
(5002.105 - 3521.702
-
2905.915)
/
68744.944
=
-0.020736
An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.
The GEO Group has a M-score of -2.29 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.15 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #767 out of 1020 companies in the Business Services industry, placing it in the top 75.2%.
Is The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
The GEO Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.15. Based on the distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #767 out of 1020 companies in the Business Services industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, The GEO Group has a GF Score™ of 54/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The GEO Group's Beneish M-Score compare to CXW and BRC?
According to the Business Services industry distribution chart, The GEO Group ranks #767 out of 1020 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places The GEO Group in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Business Services company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Business Services industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on The GEO Group and its competitors. The GEO Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.15. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The GEO Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is MXN268.42, compared to a current price of MXN478.00 — trading 78.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.15. The GEO Group's overall GF Score™ is 54/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.15 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The GEO Group (MEX:GEO1) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The GEO Group stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of MXN478.00 is trading 78.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of MXN268.42.
GuruFocus considers The GEO Group to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for MEX:GEO1:
Beneish M-Score: -2.15
GF Value™: MXN268.42 vs. price of MXN478.00 (78.1% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MEX:GEO1 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
The GEO Group Inc specializes in detention facilities and community reentry centers. It operates in four segments: U.S. Secure Services, which mainly encompasses U.S.-based secure services business; Electronic Monitoring and Supervision Services, which conducts its services in the United States, represents services provided to adults for monitoring services and evidence-based supervision and treatment programs for community-based parolees, probationers, and pretrial defendants; Reentry Services conducts its services in the United States represents services provided to adults for residential and non-residential treatment, educational and community-based programs, pre-release and half-way house programs; and International Services. The company operates in U.S, Australia and South Africa.
54GF Score
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