Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $39.33 (As of Today)

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As of today (2023-03-25), Safety Insurance Group's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $39.33.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Safety Insurance Group's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Safety Insurance Group is -86.19%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Safety Insurance Group Annual Data

Trend

Dec13

Dec14

Dec15

Dec16

Dec17

Dec18

Dec19

Dec20

Dec21

Dec22

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Safety Insurance Group Quarterly Data
	Mar18	Jun18	Sep18	Dec18	Mar19	Jun19	Sep19	Dec19	Mar20	Jun20	Sep20	Dec20	Mar21	Jun21	Sep21	Dec21	Mar22	Jun22	Sep22	Dec22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)																-	-	-	-	-

Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 10%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => For companies with Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years less than 5%, GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $3.150.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Safety Insurance Group's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	=	EPS without NRI	*	{[(1+g1)/(1+d)	+	(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
	+	(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10	*	[(1+g2)/(1+d)	+	(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2	+	...	+	(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.05)/(1+0.1) = 0.95454545454545
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.1) = 0.94545454545455

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

EPS without NRI

{[x

x^2

...

x^10]

x^10

y^2

...

y^10]}

EPS without NRI

(1-x^10)

(1-x)

x^10

(1-y^10)

(1-y)]

3.150

12.485

39.33

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)	=	(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)	-	Current Price)	/	Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
	=	(39.33	-	73.23)	/	39.33
	=	-86.19 %

Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.

Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.

Safety Insurance Group Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

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Safety Insurance Group (NAS:SAFT) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Safety Insurance Group Inc (NAS:SAFT) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SFN:Germany

Address

20 Custom House Street, Boston, MA, USA, 02110

Website

http://www.safetyinsurance.com

Safety Insurance Group Inc is a provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. The company also offers property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobile, homeowners, dwelling fire, umbrella, and business owner policies. It operates in the business segment of Property and casualty insurance operations.

Executives

Farina John Daniel Jr.	director	20 CUSTOM HOUSE ST, BOSTON MA 02110
Deborah E Gray	director	20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Glenn Hiltpold	officer: VP of Actuarial Services	20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Moran Mary Coffey	director	DANVERS BANCORP, INC., ONE CONANT STREET, DANVERS MA 01923
Christopher Thomas Whitford	officer: VP, CFO and Secretary	20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Srb Corp	10 percent owner	125 HIGH STREET, OLIVER STREET TOWER, 9TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02110
Palisades Safety & Insurance Association	10 percent owner	C/O PLYMOUTH ROCK MANAGEMENT CO OF NJ, 581 MAIN STREET, 4TH FLOOR, WOODBRIDGE NJ 07095
Plymouth Rock Co Inc	10 percent owner	695 ATLANTIC AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02111
Thalia Meehan	director	C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
John Patrick Drago	officer: VP - Marketing	20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Ann Marie Mckeown	officer: V.P Insurance Operations	20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Stephen Albert Varga	officer: VP - MIS	20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
Paul J Narciso	officer: VP - Claims	C/O SAFETY INSURANCE, 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
George Murphy	officer: VP - Marketing	C/O SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP, INC., 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110
James Berry	officer: VP - Insurance Operations	C/O SAFETY INSURANCE, 20 CUSTOM HOUSE STREET, BOSTON MA 02110