NCBA Group (NAI:NCBA) Beneish M-Score: -2.34 (As of Jul. 22, 2026)

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NAI:NCBA NCBA Group PLC NAI:NCBA
69 GF Score
Price KES89.25
GF Value KES54.75
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is NCBA Group Beneish M-Score?

NCBA Group NAI:NCBA +0.56% 69 Beneish M-Score is -2.34 as of Jul. 22, 2026. GuruFocus rates NAI:NCBA with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of KES54.75 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 1 warning sign investors should review. Among 1,390 Banks companies, NCBA Group ranks worse than 60.65% on this metric.

Note: Financial institutions were excluded from the sample in Beneish paper when calculating Beneish M-Score. Thus, the prediction might not fit banks and insurance companies.

The zones of discrimination for M-Score is as such:

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.
An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

Good Sign:

Beneish M-Score -2.34 no higher than -1.78, which implies that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

The historical rank and industry rank for NCBA Group's Beneish M-Score or its related term are showing as below:

NAI:NCBA' s Beneish M-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -2.77   Med: -2.34   Max: -2.14
Current: -2.34

During the past 13 years, the highest Beneish M-Score of NCBA Group was -2.14. The lowest was -2.77. And the median was -2.34.

NAI:NCBA
69GF Score
NCBA Group PLC NAI:NCBA
Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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NCBA Group Beneish M-Score Calculation

The M-score was created by Professor Messod Beneish. Instead of measuring the bankruptcy risk (Altman Z-Score) or business trend (Piotroski F-Score), M-score can be used to detect the risk of earnings manipulation. This is the original research paper on M-score.

The M-Score Variables:

The M-score of NCBA Group for today is based on a combination of the following eight different indices:

M=-4.84+0.92 * DSRI+0.528 * GMI+0.404 * AQI+0.892 * SGI+0.115 * DEPI
=-4.84+0.92 * 1+0.528 * 1+0.404 * 1.0007+0.892 * 1.1585+0.115 * 0.9743
-0.172 * SGAI+4.679 * TATA-0.327 * LVGI
-0.172 * 0.9126+4.679 * -0.020713-0.327 * 0.7421
=-2.34

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

This Year (Dec25) TTM:Last Year (Dec24) TTM:
Total Receivables was KES0 Mil.
Revenue was KES71,800 Mil.
Gross Profit was KES71,800 Mil.
Total Current Assets was KES0 Mil.
Total Assets was KES716,047 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was KES7,873 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was KES3,303 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was KES3,121 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was KES0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was KES11,446 Mil.
Net Income was KES23,400 Mil.
Gross Profit was KES0 Mil.
Cash Flow from Operations was KES38,232 Mil.
 Total Receivables was KES0 Mil.
Revenue was KES61,975 Mil.
Gross Profit was KES61,975 Mil.
Total Current Assets was KES0 Mil.
Total Assets was KES665,944 Mil.
Property, Plant and Equipment(Net PPE) was KES7,799 Mil.
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization(DDA) was KES3,153 Mil.
Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) was KES2,952 Mil.
Total Current Liabilities was KES0 Mil.
Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation was KES14,343 Mil.

1. DSRI = Days Sales in Receivables Index

Measured as the ratio of Revenue in Total Receivables in year t to year t-1.

A large increase in DSR could be indicative of revenue inflation.

DSRI=(Receivables_t / Revenue_t) / (Receivables_t-1 / Revenue_t-1)
=(0 / 71799.66) / (0 / 61975.338)
=0 / 0
=1

2. GMI = Gross Margin Index

Measured as the ratio of gross margin in year t-1 to gross margin in year t.

Gross margin has deteriorated when this index is above 1. A firm with poorer prospects is more likely to manipulate earnings.

GMI=GrossMargin_t-1 / GrossMargin_t
=(GrossProfit_t-1 / Revenue_t-1) / (GrossProfit_t / Revenue_t)
=(61975.338 / 61975.338) / (71799.66 / 71799.66)
=1 / 1
=1

3. AQI = Asset Quality Index

AQI is the ratio of asset quality in year t to year t-1.

Asset quality is measured as the ratio of non-current assets other than Property, Plant and Equipment to Total Assets.

AQI=(1 - (CurrentAssets_t + PPE_t) / TotalAssets_t) / (1 - (CurrentAssets_t-1 + PPE_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=(1 - (0 + 7873.255) / 716047.157) / (1 - (0 + 7799.176) / 665943.764)
=0.989005 / 0.988289
=1.0007

4. SGI = Sales Growth Index

Ratio of Revenue in year t to sales in year t-1.

Sales growth is not itself a measure of manipulation. However, growth companies are likely to find themselves under pressure to manipulate in order to keep up appearances.

SGI=Sales_t / Sales_t-1
=Revenue_t / Revenue_t-1
=71799.66 / 61975.338
=1.1585

5. DEPI = Depreciation Index

Measured as the ratio of the rate of Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization in year t-1 to the corresponding rate in year t.

DEPI greater than 1 indicates that assets are being depreciated at a slower rate. This suggests that the firm might be revising useful asset life assumptions upwards, or adopting a new method that is income friendly.

DEPI=(Depreciation_t-1 / (Depreciaton_t-1 + PPE_t-1)) / (Depreciation_t / (Depreciaton_t + PPE_t))
=(3153.44 / (3153.44 + 7799.176)) / (3302.772 / (3302.772 + 7873.255))
=0.287917 / 0.295523
=0.9743

Note: If the Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization data is not available, we assume that the depreciation rate is constant and set the Depreciation Index to 1.

6. SGAI = Sales, General and Administrative expenses Index

The ratio of Selling, General, & Admin. Expense(SGA) to Sales in year t relative to year t-1.

SGA expenses index > 1 means that the company is becoming less efficient in generate sales.

SGAI=(SGA_t / Sales_t) / (SGA_t-1 /Sales_t-1)
=(3120.659 / 71799.66) / (2951.58 / 61975.338)
=0.043463 / 0.047625
=0.9126

7. LVGI = Leverage Index

The ratio of total debt to Total Assets in year t relative to yeat t-1.

An LVGI > 1 indicates an increase in leverage

LVGI=((LTD_t + CurrentLiabilities_t) / TotalAssets_t) / ((LTD_t-1 + CurrentLiabilities_t-1) / TotalAssets_t-1)
=((11445.623 + 0) / 716047.157) / ((14342.829 + 0) / 665943.764)
=0.015984 / 0.021538
=0.7421

8. TATA = Total Accruals to Total Assets

Total accruals calculated as the change in working capital accounts other than cash less depreciation.

TATA=(IncomefromContinuingOperations_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(NetIncome_t - NonOperatingIncome_t - CashFlowsfromOperations_t) / TotalAssets_t
=(23400.299 - 0 - 38231.821) / 716047.157
=-0.020713

An M-Score of equal or less than -1.78 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator. An M-Score of greater than -1.78 signals that the company is likely to be a manipulator.

NCBA Group has a M-score of -2.34 suggests that the company is unlikely to be a manipulator.

Frequently Asked Questions Learn more about Beneish M-Score →
What does a Beneish M-Score of -2.34 mean?
NCBA Group (NAI:NCBA) has a Beneish M-Score of -2.34 as of Jul. 22, 2026. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on NCBA Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, NCBA Group ranks #843 out of 1390 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 60.6%.
Is NCBA Group's Beneish M-Score too high?
NCBA Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.34. Based on the distribution chart, NCBA Group ranks #843 out of 1390 companies in the Banks industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, NCBA Group has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does NCBA Group's Beneish M-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, NCBA Group ranks #843 out of 1390 companies for Beneish M-Score. This places NCBA Group in the lower half of its industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Beneish M-Score for a Banks company?
A good Beneish M-Score depends on the Banks industry context. However, Beneish M-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Beneish M-Score mean?
A high Beneish M-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Beneish M-score measures the likelihood of earnings manipulation. View historical data on NCBA Group and its competitors. NCBA Group's current Beneish M-Score is -2.34. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is NCBA Group stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, NCBA Group (NAI:NCBA) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is KES54.75, compared to a current price of KES89.25 — trading 63% above its estimated fair value. The current Beneish M-Score is -2.34. NCBA Group's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 1 warning sign to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Beneish M-Score calculated?
Beneish M-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For NCBA Group (NAI:NCBA), the current Beneish M-Score is -2.34 as of Jul. 22, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is NCBA Group (NAI:NCBA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, NCBA Group stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of KES89.25 is trading 63% above its estimated GF Value™ of KES54.75. GuruFocus considers NCBA Group to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for NAI:NCBA:

  • Beneish M-Score: -2.34
  • GF Value™: KES54.75 vs. price of KES89.25 (63% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the NAI:NCBA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

NCBA Group Business Description

Address Mara and Ragati Roads, P.O. Box 44599-00100, NCBA Centre, Upper hill, Nairobi, KEN
NCBA Group PLC and its subsidiaries provide retail, corporate, and digital banking, brokerage, bancassurance, insurance, and investment banking services. The Group's operating divisions are: Corporate and institutional banking, Retail banking (SME and Consumer banking), Treasury dealing, Digital Bank, Investment banking, and Insurance. Through these divisions, it caters to different segments of customers from medium and large corporates to high net worth and other retail individual clients, offering them various kinds of financial products and services, such as deposit accounts, loans, advisory, digital banking, and wealth management solutions, among others. The Group's geographical segments are: Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Ghana. The majority of its revenue is derived from Kenya.
69GF Score

Get the complete analysis for NAI:NCBA

Beneish M-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

KES89.25
Price
KES54.75
GF Value