ATLO (Ames National) Predictability Rank

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What is Ames National Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ames National Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ames National Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Ames National Corp (NAS:ATLO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

323 Sixth Street, Box 846, Ames, IA, USA, 50010

Website

https://www.amesnational.com

Ames National Corporation is a United States-based bank holding company. It provides short-term and medium-term commercial, multi-family, and agricultural real estate loans, residential real estate loans, agricultural and business operating loans and lines of credit, equipment loans, vehicle loans, personal loans and lines of credit, home improvement loans and origination of mortgage loans for sale into the secondary market. The Banks also offer a variety of checking, savings and time deposits, cash management services, merchant credit card processing, safe deposit boxes, wire transfers, direct deposit and automated/video teller machine access. The banking segment generates revenues through personal, business, agricultural and commercial lending, and Others.

Executives

Betty A Baudler	director	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Patrick G Hagan	director	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Adam Snodgrass	other: President of subsidiary bank	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Richard Schreier	other: President of Subsidiary Bank	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Robert A Thomas	other: President of subsidiary bank	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Michelle R Cassabaum	director	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Dan E Johnson	other: President of subsidiary bank	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Michael A Wilson	officer: Executive Vice President	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Scott T Bauer	other: Ex VP of Subsidiary bank	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Jeffrey K Putzier	other: President of Subsidiary Bank	POST OFFICE BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
David W. Benson	director	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Kevin L Swartz	director	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
John Patrick Nelson	officer: Vice President	POST OFFICE BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Jeffery C Baker	director	PO BOX 846, AMES IA 50010
Larson James R Ii	director	3321 RIDGETOP RD, AMES IA 50014