CB Financial Services (CB Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is CB Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CB Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CB Financial Services (CB Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » CB Financial Services Inc (NAS:CBFV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

100 North Market Street, Carmichaels, PA, USA, 15320

Website

https://www.communitybank.tv

CB Financial Services Inc operates as a bank holding company. The company conducts its operations primarily through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Community Bank, a Pennsylvania-chartered commercial bank. The Bank offers products and services related to residential and commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, and consumer loans, as well as a range of deposit products for individuals and businesses in its market area. It operates in two operating units namely Community Banking and Insurance brokerage service segment. The bank generates its revenue in the form of interests.

Executives

Mark E. Fox	director	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
John J Lacarte	director	100 NORTH MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Charles R. Guthrie	director	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
John Haines Montgomery	director, officer: President and CEO	100 NORTH MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Richard B Boyer	director	FEDFIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION, DONNER AT SIXTH STREET, MONESSEN PA 15062
Roberta Robinson Olejasz	director	100 NORTH MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Karl G. Baily	director	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Joseph N. Headlee	director	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
David F. Pollock	director	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
William G Petroplus	director	C/O FIRST WEST VIRGINIA BANCORP INC, P O BOX 6671, WHEELING WV 26003
Jonathan Bedway	director	100 NORTH MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Ralph Burchianti	officer: Senior Vice President	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Jamie L Prah	officer: EVP and CFO	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 15320
Jennifer L George	officer: EVP and COO	100 N. MARKET STREET, CARMICHAELS PA 16320
Patrick G Obrien	director	C/O FEDFIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION, DONNER AT SIXTH STREET, MONESSEN PA 15062