Croghan Bancshares (Croghan Bancshares) Predictability Rank

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What is Croghan Bancshares Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Croghan Bancshares Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Croghan Bancshares Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Croghan Bancshares (Croghan Bancshares) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Croghan Bancshares Inc (OTCPK:CHBH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

323 Croghan Street, Fremont, OH, USA, 43420

Website

https://www.croghan.com

Croghan Bancshares Inc operates as a bank holding company. It operates in one segment, Commercial Banking. The company offers a diverse range of commercial and retail banking services through its banking centers. Its products are comprised of traditional banking services such as consumer, commercial, agricultural, and real estate loans, personal and business checking accounts, savings accounts, time deposit accounts, safe deposit box services and trust department services.

Executives

James E Bowlus	director	460 KINGSGATE DRIVE, FREMONT OH 43420
Barry F Luse	officer: Vice President/Trust Officer	1927 ROBERT AVENUE, FREMONT OH 43420
Claire F Johansen	director	5600 SOUTH CR 19, TIFFIN OH 44883
Allen Michael D Sr	director	5639 SR 113, BELLEVUE OH 44811
James R Faist	director	119 CANTERBURY DRIVE, FREMONT OH 43420
Kendall W Rieman	officer: Vice President/CFO and COO	3339 CR 223, FREMONT OH 43420
Rick M Robertson	director, officer: President and CEO	1687 TOMAHAWK TRACE, FREMONT OH 43420
Stephen A Kemper	director	455 WEST MAIN STREET, BELLEVUE OH 44811
Daniel W Lease	director	2276 EAST STATE STREET, FREMONT OH 43420
Allan E Mehlow	director	2569 FANGBONER ROAD, FREMONT OH 43420
Thomas W Mclaughlin	director	2221 COLE CREEK DRIVE, NORWALK OH 44857
Elder Thomas J Jr	officer: Vice President	3584 SOUTH LINKER PORTAGE ROAD, ELMORE OH 43416-9730
Claude E Young	director	2242 SOUTH SR 19, GREEN SPRINGS OH 44836
John C Hoffman	officer: Controller	1207 JUNE STREET, FREMONT OH 43420
Robert H Moyer	director	519 SMITH ROAD, FREMONT OH 43420

Croghan Bancshares (Croghan Bancshares) Headlines

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