WCFB (WCF Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is WCF Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

WCF Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

WCF Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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WCF Bancorp Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » WCF Bancorp Inc (OTCPK:WCFB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

401 Fair Meadow Drive, P.O. Box 638, Webster City, IA, USA, 50595

Website

https://www.wcfbank.com

WCF Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company for WCF Financial Bank. The bank conducts business from full-service offices located in Hamilton, Buchanan, and Tama counties, all in Iowa. The primary business activities include accepting deposits from individual, corporate, and public clients and investing those deposits in real estate, agricultural, commercial, and personal loans. Its various banking and financial services and product offerings include credit and debit cards, loans, checking accounts, business loans, agricultural loans, business credit cards, and money market accounts, among others.

Executives

Michelle Zahn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Bradley Mickelson	director	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Paul L Moen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Michael R Segner	director, officer: President and CEO	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Thomas J Hromatka	director	C/O NORTH CENTRAL BANCSHARES INC, 825 CENTRAL AVENUE, FORT DODGE IA 50501
Kevin Eason	officer: EVP and CCO	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
C Thomas Chalstrom	director	C/O NORTH CENTRAL BANCSHARES INC, 825 CENTRAL AVE PO BOX 1237, FORT DODGE IA 50501
Kyle R Swon	director, officer: SVP	220 DES MOINES ST, PO BOX 638, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Stephen L Mourlam	director, officer: President and CEO	220 DES MOINES ST, PO BOX 638, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Leo Moriarity	director	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Harold J Pursley	director, other: Chairman	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595
Kasie L Doering	officer: CFO	401 FAIR MEADOW DRIVE, WEBSTER CITY IA 50595