What is WSFS Financial Predictability Rank?
3 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
WSFS Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
WSFS Financial Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
500 Delaware Avenue, Wilmington, DE, USA, 19801
WSFS Financial Corp is a savings and loan holding company. The company operates in three segments: WSFS Bank provides loans and leases and other financial products to commercial and consumer customers. Cash Connect segment provides ATM vault cash, smart safe, and other cash logistics services; and Wealth Management provides a broad array of planning and advisor services, investment management, personal and institutional trust services, and credit and deposit products to individuals, corporate, and institutional clients. Majority revenue is generated from WSFS Bank segment.
Executives
| Rodger Levenson |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Arthur J Bacci |
officer: Executive Vice President |
|
| Stephen P Clark |
officer: EVP |
C/O WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Patrick Joseph Ward |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Michael J Donahue |
director |
|
| Christine Elizabeth Davis |
officer: EVP, Chief Risk Officer |
WSFS BANK CENTER, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Shari Kruzinski |
officer: EVP, Chief Customer Officer |
WSFS BANK CENTER, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Francis J Leto |
director |
501 WILLIAMSON RD, GLADWYNE PA 19035 |
| Richard Wright |
officer: Executive Vice President |
|
| Nancy J Foster |
director |
C/O CIT GROUP, 505 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Lynn Mckee |
director |
|
| Diego F. Calderin |
director |
971 FREDERICK DRIVE, WEST CHESTER PA 19380 |
| Peggy H Eddens |
officer: Executive Vice President |
C/O WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Mark A Turner |
director |
C/O WSFS FINANCIAL CORP, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
| Paul S Greenplate |
officer: EVP |
C/O WSFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 500 DELAWARE AVENUE, WILMINGTON DE 19801 |
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