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Old Second BancorpFRA:OSB +1.85%73 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.84% as of Jun. 2026, which is 6% above its 10-year median of 20.51. GuruFocus rates FRA:OSB with a GF Score™ of 73/100 and a GF Value™ of €16.60 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,418 Banks companies, Old Second Bancorp ranks better than 68.48% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Old Second Bancorp's forward rate of return for was 21.84%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
FRA:OSB'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 7.3 Med: 20.51 Max: 32.48
Current: 20.95
During the past 13 years, Old Second Bancorp's highest Forward Rate of Return was 32.48. The lowest was 7.30. And the median was 20.51.
FRA:OSB's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 68.48% of 1418
companies
in the Banks industry
Industry Median: 15.34
vs FRA:OSB: 20.95
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Old Second Bancorp (FRA:OSB) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Old Second Bancorp Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Old Second Bancorp Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Old Second Bancorp Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
FRA:OSB vs UVSP, HFWA, PFBC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Old Second Bancorp Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Old Second Bancorp Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.84% mean?
Old Second Bancorp (FRA:OSB) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.84% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Old Second Bancorp and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 20.51. Over the past decade, Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 7.30 to 32.48. According to the industry distribution chart, Old Second Bancorp ranks #447 out of 1418 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 31.5%.
Is Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Old Second Bancorp's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.84% is near median its 10-year median of 20.51. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 7.30 to a high of 32.48. The Banks industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.34. Old Second Bancorp's value of 21.84% is 42.4% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Old Second Bancorp ranks #447 out of 1418 companies in the Banks industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Old Second Bancorp has a GF Score™ of 73/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Old Second Bancorp's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to UVSP and HFWA?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, Old Second Bancorp ranks #447 out of 1418 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Old Second Bancorp in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.34. Old Second Bancorp's value of 21.84% is 42.4% above this benchmark. Historically, Old Second Bancorp's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 7.30 to 32.48 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 20.51 vs. the industry median of 15.34, Old Second Bancorp has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Banks company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Banks companies is 15.34, based on 1,418 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Old Second Bancorp's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.84% is 42.4% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Old Second Bancorp and its competitors. For the Banks industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.34 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Old Second Bancorp's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.84%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 20.51. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Old Second Bancorp stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Old Second Bancorp (FRA:OSB) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is €16.60, compared to a current price of €22.00 — trading 32.5% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.84%, which is near median its 10-year median of 20.51 and 42.4% above the Banks industry median of 15.34. Old Second Bancorp's overall GF Score™ is 73/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Old Second Bancorp (FRA:OSB), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.84% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Old Second Bancorp (FRA:OSB) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Old Second Bancorp stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of €22.00 is trading 32.5% above its estimated GF Value™ of €16.60.
GuruFocus considers Old Second Bancorp to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FRA:OSB:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 21.84% (near median its 10-year median of 20.51)
GF Value™: €16.60 vs. price of €22.00 (32.5% above fair value)
Industry Position: 42.4% above the Banks median (#447 of 1418)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRA:OSB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Old Second Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. It provides consumer and commercial banking products such as demand, money market, savings, time deposit, and individual retirement as well as commercial, industrial, consumer, and real estate lending, including installment loans, student loans, agricultural loans, lines of credit and overdraft checking, safe deposit operations, trust services, wealth management services, and additional services tailored to the needs of individual customers, corporates, small-medium enterprises. The company has one operating segment, which is community banking. The company's revenue consists of interest, commission, payments, and other income.
73GF Score
Get the complete analysis for FRA:OSB
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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