Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
River Valley Community Bancorp (OTCPK:RVCB) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
River Valley Community Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
RVCB vs STLE, CZNL, SVBT: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
River Valley Community Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
River Valley Community Bancorp Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-7.11
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% mean?
River Valley Community Bancorp (RVCB) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% as of Jun. 27, 2026.
Is River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
River Valley Community Bancorp's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. Overall, River Valley Community Bancorp has a GF Score™ of 48/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to STLE and CZNL?
River Valley Community Bancorp's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.08% can be compared against companies in the Banks industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Banks company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Banks industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. River Valley Community Bancorp's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is River Valley Community Bancorp stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, River Valley Community Bancorp (RVCB) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $17.44, compared to a current price of $24.00 — trading 37.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08%. River Valley Community Bancorp's overall GF Score™ is 48/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For River Valley Community Bancorp (RVCB), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.08% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is River Valley Community Bancorp (RVCB) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, River Valley Community Bancorp stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $24.00 is trading 37.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $17.44.
GuruFocus considers River Valley Community Bancorp to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for RVCB:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.08%
GF Value™: $17.44 vs. price of $24.00 (37.6% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the RVCB stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
River Valley Community Bancorp Business Description
River Valley Community Bancorp is a bank holding company based in the United States. Along with its banking subsidiary, it provides financial products and services to small to middle-market businesses and professionals located in Sutter, Yuba, Nevada, Placer, Washoe, and surrounding counties. Its portfolio of financial solutions includes business checking accounts, business savings accounts, loans and lines of credit, personal savings accounts, credit cards, online and mobile banking services, certificate of deposits, etc. These services and products are offered through a network of branches across Yuba City, Grass Valley, Auburn, Marysville, and Roseville, California. The company also operates a loan production office in Reno, Nevada.
48GF Score
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