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Fair Isaac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)

: $467.80 (As of Today)
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As of today (2022-08-10), Fair Isaac's intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model is $467.80.

Note: Discounted Earnings model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.

Fair Isaac's Predictability Rank is 4-Stars.

Margin of Safety (Earnings Based) using Discounted Earnings model for Fair Isaac is -7.12%.

The historical rank and industry rank for Fair Isaac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) or its related term are showing as below:

FICO' s Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.33   Med: 0.97   Max: 3.24
Current: 1.07

During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-DCF (Earnings Based) Ratio of Fair Isaac was 3.24. The lowest was 0.33. And the median was 0.97.

FICO's Price-to-DCF (Earnings Based) is ranked worse than
53.74% of 294 companies
in the Software industry
Industry Median: 0.96 vs FICO: 1.07

Fair Isaac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Fair Isaac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Fair Isaac Annual Data
Trend Sep12 Sep13 Sep14 Sep15 Sep16 Sep17 Sep18 Sep19 Sep20 Sep21
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 76.71 92.45 184.20 278.18 508.59

Fair Isaac Quarterly Data
Sep17 Dec17 Mar18 Jun18 Sep18 Dec18 Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22
Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 394.37 508.59 515.79 521.60 467.80

Fair Isaac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Calculation

This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Earnings model with default parameters. The calculation method is the same as Discounted Cash Flow model except earnings are used in the calculation instead of free cash flow. This is the default method of calculation with GuruFocus DCF calculator.

Usually a two-stage model is used in calculating the intrinsic value with discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.

GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:

1. Discount Rate: d = 9%
A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. We used the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer, then added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.

2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 18.50%
Growth Rate in the growth stage = average earnings growth rate in the past 10 years. If it is higher than 20%, we use 20%. If it is less than 5%, we use 5% instead. => Average Earnings Growth Rate in the past 10 years was 18.50% which is less than 20% and higher than 5% => Growth Rate: 18.50%

3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10

4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%

5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10

6. EPS without NRI: eps without nri = $13.650.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the Earnings Per Share without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.

All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.

Fair Isaac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) for today is calculated as:

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[(1+g1)/(1+d)+(1+g1)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10]
+(1+g1)^10/(1+d)^10*[(1+g2)/(1+d)+(1+g2)^2/(1+d)^2+...+(1+g2)^10/(1+d)^10]}

set x = (1+g1)/(1+d) = (1+0.185)/(1+0.09) = 1.0871559633028
and y = (1+g2)/(1+d) = (1+0.04)/(1+0.09) = 0.95412844036697

Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*{[x+x^2+...+x^10]+x^10*[y+y^2+...+y^10]}
=Earnings per Share (Diluted)*[x*(1-x^10)/(1-x)+x^10*y*(1-y^10)/(1-y)]
=13.650*34.2708
=467.80

Margin of Safety % (DCF Earnings Based)=(Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)-Current Price)/Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
=(467.8-501.11)/467.8
=-7.12 %

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.


Fair Isaac  (NYSE:FICO) Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Explanation

Unlike valuation methods such as Net Current Asset Value, Tangible Book Value per Share, Graham Number, Median Ratio etc, discounted Cash Flow model evaluates the companies based on their future earnings power instead of their assets.


Be Aware

What you need to know about Discounted Earnings model:

1. The Discounted Earnings model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that are relatively consistent performers.
4. The Discounted Earnings model works poorly for inconsistent performers like cyclicals.
5. Your expected return from the investment is a reasonable discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.

You can screen for stocks that trade below their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) with the GuruFocus All-in-One Screener. Companies with a high Predictability Rank that trade at a discount to their Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) and Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) can be found in the screen of Undervalued Predictable Companies.


Fair Isaac Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Fair Isaac's Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Fair Isaac Business Description

Fair Isaac logo
Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Fair Isaac Corp (NYSE:FICO) » Definitions » Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based)
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5 West Mendenhall, Suite 105, Bozeman, MT, USA, 59715
Fair Isaac Corp is an applied analytics company. The firm operates in two segments: Software segment that includes pre-configured analytic and decision management solutions designed for a specific type of business need or process - such as account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, and marketing - as well as associated professional services. Scores segment includes business-to-business scoring solutions and services which give clients access to predictive credit and other scores.
Executives
Covert Stephanie officer: Executive Vice President 181 METRO DR. SAN JOSE CA 95110
Bowers Thomas A. officer: Executive Vice President 181 METRO DR. #600 SAN JOSE CA 95110
Arredondo Fabiola R director ONE CAMPBELL PLACE CAMDEN NJ 08103
Moldt Claus officer: Executive Vice President & CTO 181 METRO DR. #600 SAN JOSE CA 95110
Mclaughlin Michael I. officer: Executive Vice President & CFO 181 METRO DR. SUITE 600 SAN JOSE CA 95110
Manolis Eva director C/O SHUTTERFLY, INC. 2800 BRIDGE PARKWAY REDWOOD CITY CA 94065
Begor Mark W director 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Mcmorris Marc F director 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Rees Joanna director LEAPFROG ENTERPRISES, INC. 6401 HOLLIS STREET SUITE 100 EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Huyard Wayne Elliot officer: Executive Vice President 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Gianforte Greg R director C/O FAIR ISAAC CORPORATION 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Kelly Braden R director 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Gordon Michael J officer: Executive Vice President 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Wells Stuart officer: Executive Vice President 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110
Wehmann James M officer: Executive Vice President 181 METRO DRIVE SAN JOSE CA 95110

Fair Isaac Headlines

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