What is CNB Financial Predictability Rank?
3.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CNB Financial Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CNB Financial Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1 South Second Street, P.O. Box 42, Clearfield, PA, USA, 16830
CNB Financial Corp is providing integrated financial solutions, which create value for both consumers and businesses. These solutions encompass deposit accounts, private banking, real estate, commercial, industrial, residential and consumer loans and lines of credit, credit cards, treasury services, online banking, mobile banking, merchant credit card processing, remote deposit and accounts receivable handling. It derives revenue through the operations as a full-service bank engaging in a full range of banking activities and services, including trust and wealth management services, for individual, business, governmental, and institutional customers. The company branch are located in Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York and Virginia.
Executives
| Angela D. Wilcoxson |
officer: EVP/Commercial Banking |
1836 CURRY LANE, TWINSBURG OH 44087 |
| Martin T. Griffith |
officer: EVP/Community Banking |
132 LAKEFRONT BLVD., UNIT 703, BUFFALO NY 14202 |
| Leanne D Kassab |
officer: Senior Vice President |
921 CUMBERLAND ST, CLEARFIELD PA 16830 |
| Shilling Steven R Shaffner |
officer: EVP/Wealth & Assset Management |
103 3RD STREET, COCHRANTON PA 16314 |
| Michael D Peduzzi |
officer: President & COO |
31 SOUTH SECOND STREET, CLEARFIELD PA 16830 |
| Jeffrey S Powell |
director |
101 BRENTWOOD DRIVE, PHILIPSBURG PA 16866 |
| Julie M. Young |
director |
6739 KENSINGTON WAY, WORTHINGTON OH 43085 |
| Scott Nicholas N. Jr. |
director |
6428 FAIR OAKS CIRCLE, FAIRVIEW PA 16415 |
| N. Michael Obi |
director |
489 PIERSON DR., RICHMOND HEIGHTS OH 44143 |
| Renee Richard |
director |
31 S 2ND STREET, CLEARFIELD PA 16830 |
| Straub Francis X Iii |
director |
342 W THERESIA RD, ST. MARY'S PA 15857 |
| Peter F Smith |
director |
C/O CNB FINANCIAL CORP, 102 ELIZABETH ST, CLEARFIELD PA 16830 |
| Heather J. Koptchak |
officer: SVP/Chief ofEmployee Resources |
31 S 2ND STREET, CLEARFIELD PA 16830 |
| Deborah Dick Pontzer |
director |
|
| Tito L Lima |
officer: EVP/CFO |
212 TOWHEE DRIVE, BOALSBURG PA 16827 |
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