RM (Regional Management) Predictability Rank

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What is Regional Management Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Regional Management Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Regional Management Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Regional Management Corp (NYSE:RM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

979 Batesville Road, Suite B, Greer, SC, USA, 29651

Website

https://www.regionalmanagement.com

Regional Management Corp is a diversified consumer finance company that provides installment loan products to customers with limited access to consumer credit from banks, thrifts, credit card companies, and other lenders. It is engaged in consumer finance. The company has the core products which are small and large installment loans. The company also offers optional payment and collateral protection insurance. The company's principal source of revenue is interest and fee income on outstanding loans.

Executives

Basswood Capital Management, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Roel C Campos	director	509 WEST BUTLER ROAD, GREENVILLE SC 29607
John D. Schachtel	officer: EVP and COO	979 BATESVILLE ROAD, SUITE B, GREER SC 29651
Basswood Financial Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Financial Fund, Inc.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	3RD FL., HARBOUR CENTRE, P.O. BOX 61, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1102
Robert William Beck	officer: EVP and CFO	979 BATESVILLE ROAD, SUITE B, GREER SC 29651
Sandra K. Johnson	director	979 BATESVILLE ROAD, SUITE B, GREER SC 29651
Matthew A Lindenbaum	director, 10 percent owner	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Opportunity Fund Inc	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVE, 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10017
Basswood Financial Long Only Fund, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10022
Jonathan David Brown	director	C/O BASSWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, 645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Partners, L.l.c.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bennett D Lindenbaum	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	645 MADISON AVENUE, 10TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Basswood Opportunity Partners, L.p.	director, 10 percent owner, other: Director-by-Deputization	BASSWOOD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC, 645 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Philip V Bancroft	director