What is Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares Predictability Rank?
4.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
24 North Main Street, Berlin, MD, USA, 21811
Calvin B. Taylor Bankshares Inc operates as a holding company for Calvin B. Taylor Banking Company. It offers a wide range of loan, deposit, and ancillary banking services through both physical and digital delivery channels to corporate and individual clients. The company's banking operations are within the eastern coastal area of the Delmarva Peninsula, including Worcester County, Maryland, Sussex County, Delaware, and Accomack County, Virginia. The Bank also operates a Loan Production Office in Onley, Virginia.
Executives
| Louis H Taylor |
director |
12329 VIVIAN STREET, BISHOPVILLE MD 21813 |
| Michael Dean Lewis |
officer: Treasurer/Prin Financial Offcr |
303 POWELL CIRCLE, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Bergey James R Jr |
director |
6213 SOUTH POINT RD, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Charlotte K Cathell |
director |
36 PINEHURST ROAD, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Jennifer G Hawkins |
other: Retired Officer (Treasurer) |
|
| Hale Harrison |
director |
1522 TEAL DRIVE, OCEAN CITY MD 21842 |
| Todd E Burbage |
director |
9494 STEPHEN DECATUR HIGHWAY, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Joseph E Moore |
director |
|
| William H Mitchell |
director, officer: Vice President |
24 N MAIN ST, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Cropper Reese F Iii |
director |
9501 ABACO LANE, OCEAN CITY MD 21842 |
| Bunting George H Jr |
director |
24 N MAIN ST, P O BOX 5, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Bergey James R Sr |
other: Retired director |
PO BOX 234, BISHOPVILLE MD 21813 |
| David Kenneth Bates |
officer: Secretary |
24 NORTH MAIN STREET, BERLIN MD 21811 |
| Cropper Reese F Jr |
director, officer: Chairman & CEO |
9620 OCEAN VIEW LANE, OCEAN CITY MD 21842 |
| Quillin Michael L Sr |
director |
P O BOX 248, OCEAN CITY MD 21843 |
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