Amerant Bancorp (Amerant Bancorp) Predictability Rank

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What is Amerant Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Amerant Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Amerant Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Amerant Bancorp (Amerant Bancorp) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Amerant Bancorp Inc (NYSE:AMTB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

220 Alhambra Circle, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134

Website

https://www.amerantbank.com

Amerant Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. Through its bank, it provides individuals and businesses deposit, credit, investment, wealth management and fiduciary services, both in the United States and to select international customers. The bank also provides banking services through traditional channels, such as banking centers and ATMs, as well as via secure websites, mobile devices, and telephone.

Executives

Howard A. Levine	officer: See remarks	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Sharymar Calderon	officer: EVP - Chief Financial Officer	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Silvio Marshall Martin	officer: See remarks	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Juan Esterripa	officer: See remarks	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Gerald P Plush	director	AMERANT BANCORP INC., 220 ALHAMBRA CR. 12TH FLOOR, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Ashaki Rucker	director	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Mariola Sanchez	officer: EVP Chief People Officer	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Erin D. Knight	director	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Capriles L. Miguel A	director	220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Vollmer A. Gustavo J	director	220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Armando Fleitas	officer: See remarks	220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Orlando D Ashford	director	C/O AMERANT BANK, 220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Oscar Suarez	director	220 ALHAMBRA CR., CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Samantha Holroyd	director	1711 MARAVILLA DR., HOUSTON TX 77055
Copeland Frederick C Jr	director	220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE, CORAL GABLES FL 33134