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Amerant Bancorp Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Amerant Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Amerant Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Amerant Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Amerant Bancorp Business Description

Amerant Bancorp logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6022
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
220 Alhambra Circle, Coral Gables, FL, USA, 33134
Amerant Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company. Through its bank, it provides individuals and businesses deposit, credit, investment, wealth management and fiduciary services, both in the United States and to select international customers. The bank also provides banking services through traditional channels, such as banking centers and ATMs, as well as via secure websites, mobile devices, and telephone.
Executives
Quelch John director C/O INVERNESS MEDICAL INNOVATIONS INC 51 SAWYER RD WALTHAM MA 02453
Holroyd Samantha director 1711 MARAVILLA DR. HOUSTON TX 77055
Ashford Orlando D director C/O AMERANT BANK 220 ALHAMBRA CR. CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Suarez Oscar director 220 ALHAMBRA CR. CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Iafigliola Carlos officer: See remarks 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Lare Dolores M director 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Fleitas Armando officer: See remarks 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Plush Gerald P director WEBSTER FINANCIAL CORPORATION 145 BANK STREET WATERBURY CT 06702
Quill John Walton director 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Trabanco Jorge officer: Chief Accounting Officer 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Figueredo Alfonso officer: See Remarks 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Villamil Jose Antonio director 2601 SOUTH BAYSHORE DRIVE, PH II COCONUT GROVE FL 33133
Copeland Frederick C Jr director 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Gonzalez S Alejandro director 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134
Mercantil Servicios Financieros, C.a. 10 percent owner C/O IVAN TRUJILLO 220 ALHAMBRA CIRCLE CORAL GABLES FL 33134

Amerant Bancorp Headlines

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