Provident Financial Holdings (Provident Financial Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Provident Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Provident Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Provident Financial Holdings (Provident Financial Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Provident Financial Holdings Inc (NAS:PROV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3756 Central Avenue, Riverside, CA, USA, 92506

Website

https://www.myprovident.com

Provident Financial Holdings Inc is engaged in providing community and mortgage banking services to consumers and small to mid-sized businesses in the Inland Empire region of Southern California. The company's business segment is Bank. The Bank's activities include attracting deposits, offering banking services and originating and purchasing single-family, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction and, to a lesser extent, other mortgages, commercial business and consumer loans. It offers business checking accounts, other business banking services and services loans for others.

Executives

Kathy Michalak	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Roy Taylor	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
William E Thomas	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Bruce Bennett	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Craig G Blunden	director, officer: President & CEO
Donavon P Ternes	officer: Senior Vice President	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
David Weiant	officer: Senior Vice President	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Lilian Brunner	officer: Senior Vice President	3756 CENTRAL AVE., RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Debbi Guthrie	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Robert Scott Ritter	officer: Senior Vice President	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Richard L Gale	officer: Senior Vice President
Judy A Carpenter	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Joseph Barr	director	3756 CENTRAL AVENUE, RIVERSIDE CA 92506
Gwendolyn Wertz	officer: Senior Vice President	9590 FOOTHILL BLVD C/O CORPORATE SERVCS, RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Kathryn R Gonzales	officer: Senior Vice President	3756 CENTRAL AVE., RIVERSIDE CA 92506