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Provident Financial HoldingsPROV +0.81%59 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.81% as of Mar. 2026, which is 53% below its 10-year median of 25.16. GuruFocus rates PROV with a GF Score™ of 59/100 and a GF Value™ of $15.93 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,420 Banks companies, Provident Financial Holdings ranks worse than 70.07% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Provident Financial Holdings's forward rate of return for was 11.81%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Provident Financial Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
PROV'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 4.48 Med: 25.16 Max: 69.66
Current: 10.97
During the past 13 years, Provident Financial Holdings's highest Forward Rate of Return was 69.66. The lowest was 4.48. And the median was 25.16.
PROV's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 70.07% of 1420
companies
in the Banks industry
Industry Median: 15.395
vs PROV: 10.97
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of Book Value per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Provident Financial Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Provident Financial Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Provident Financial Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Provident Financial Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
PROV vs PBNK, RVSB, GSBX: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Provident Financial Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Provident Financial Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Banks Industry
For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Provident Financial Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Provident Financial Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Provident Financial Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.81% mean?
Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.81% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Provident Financial Holdings and its competitors. This is 53% below median its historical median of 25.16. Over the past decade, Provident Financial Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 4.48 to 69.66. According to the industry distribution chart, Provident Financial Holdings ranks #995 out of 1420 companies in the Banks industry, placing it in the top 70.1%.
Is Provident Financial Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Provident Financial Holdings' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.81% is 53% below median its 10-year median of 25.16. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 4.48 to a high of 69.66. The Banks industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40. Provident Financial Holdings' value of 11.81% is 23.3% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Provident Financial Holdings ranks #995 out of 1420 companies in the Banks industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Provident Financial Holdings has a GF Score™ of 59/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Provident Financial Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to PBNK and RVSB?
According to the Banks industry distribution chart, Provident Financial Holdings ranks #995 out of 1420 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Provident Financial Holdings in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40. Provident Financial Holdings' value of 11.81% is 23.3% below this benchmark. Historically, Provident Financial Holdings' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 4.48 to 69.66 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 25.16 vs. the industry median of 15.40, Provident Financial Holdings has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Banks company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Banks companies is 15.40, based on 1,420 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Provident Financial Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 11.81% is 23.3% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Provident Financial Holdings and its competitors. For the Banks industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 15.40 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Provident Financial Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.81%, which is 53% below median its own 10-year median of 25.16. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Provident Financial Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $15.93, compared to a current price of $18.10 — trading 13.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.81%, which is 53% below median its 10-year median of 25.16 and 23.3% below the Banks industry median of 15.40. Provident Financial Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 59/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Provident Financial Holdings (PROV), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 11.81% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Provident Financial Holdings (PROV) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Provident Financial Holdings stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $18.10 is trading 13.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of $15.93.
GuruFocus considers Provident Financial Holdings to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for PROV:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 11.81% (53% below median its 10-year median of 25.16)
GF Value™: $15.93 vs. price of $18.10 (13.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 23.3% below the Banks median (#995 of 1420)
No single metric tells the full story. See the PROV stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Provident Financial Holdings Inc is a holding company of Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. It is a financial services company committed to serving consumers and small to mid-sized businesses in the Inland Empire region of Southern California. Its business activities consist of community banking, investment services and trustee services for real estate transactions. The group operates in Bank segment that include attracting deposits, offering banking services and originating and purchasing single-family, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction and, to a lesser extent, other mortgage, commercial business and consumer loans. Its evenues are derived from interest earned on its loan and investment portfolios, and fees generated through its community banking activities.
59GF Score
Get the complete analysis for PROV
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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