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The Swatch Group AGSWGAF 69 Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $11.68 as of Jul. 21, 2026, which is 723% above its 10-year median of 1.42. GuruFocus rates SWGAF with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of $169.19 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 10 warning signs investors should review. Among 128 Retail - Cyclical companies, The Swatch Group AG ranks worse than 781249.22% on this metric.
Note: Discounted Cash Flow model is only suitable for predictable companies (Business Predictability Rank higher than 1-Star). If the company's predictability rank is 1-Star or Not Rated, result may not be accurate due to the low predictability of business and the data will not be stored into our database.
The Swatch Group AG's Predictability Rank is 1-Star. Thus, this page is only used for demonstration purposes and the DCF related results in the screener and portfolio will appear as zero.
The industry rank for The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) or its related term are showing as below:
SWGAF's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) is not ranked *
in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Industry Median: 0.655 * Ranked among companies with meaningful Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) only.
The Swatch Group AG (OTCPK:SWGAF) Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Explanation
1. The DCF model evaluates a company based on its future earnings power
2. Growth is taken into account; therefore a faster growth company is worth more if everything else is the same.
3. Since we are projecting future growth, it is assumed that the company will grow at the same rate as it did during the past 10 years. Therefore this model works better for the companies that have relatively consistent performance.
4. The DCF model works poorly for inconsistent performers such as cyclicals.
5. What discount rate should you use? Your expected return from the investment is a good discount rate assumption.
6. A larger margin of safety should be required for companies with less predictable businesses.
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Related Terms
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Chart
For the Luxury Goods subindustry, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based), along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The Swatch Group AG Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-DCF (FCF Based) falls into.
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) Calculation
This is the intrinsic value calculated from the Discounted Cash Flow model with default parameters. In a discounted cash flow model, the future cash flow is estimated based on a cash flow growth rate and a discount rate. The cash flow of the future is discounted to its current value at the discount rate. All of the discounted future cash flow is added together to get the current intrinsic value of the company.
Usually a two-stage model is used when calculating a stock's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow model. The first stage is called the growth stage; the second is called the terminal stage. In the growth stage the company grows at a faster rate. Because it cannot grow at that rate forever, a lower rate is used for the terminal stage.
GuruFocus DCF calculator is a two-stage model. The default values are defined as:
1. Discount Rate: d = 7% A reasonable discount rate assumption should be at least the long term average return of the stock market, which can be estimated from risk free rate plus risk premium of stock market. GuruFocus uses 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate as the risk-free rate and rounded up to the nearest integer. It is updated daily. The current risk-free rate is 0.31%. Please go to Economic Indicators page for more information. Please note that we use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate of the United States as default. Then we added a risk premium of 6% to get the estimated discount rate. Some investors use their expected rate of return, which is also reasonable. A typical discount rate can be anywhere between 6% - 20%.
2. Growth Rate in the growth stage: g1 = 5%
The Growth Rate in the growth stage is initially set as the default 10-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). In cases where the 10-year growth rate is unavailable, it defaults to using the 5-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share). If both the 10-year and 5-year growth rates are unavailable, the system defaults to the 3-Year FCF Growth Rate (Per Share).
However, it's important to note that there is a growth rate range. If the calculated growth rate exceeds 20%, it will be capped at 20%. Conversely, if the calculated growth rate falls below 5%, it will be adjusted to 5% to maintain a reasonable range.
=>
The Swatch Group AG's average Free Cash Flow Growth Rate in the past
3 years was -47.60%,
which is less than 5%. GuruFocus defaults => Growth Rate: 5%
3. Years of Growth Stage: y1 = 10
4. Terminal Growth Rate: g2 = 4%
5. Years of Terminal Growth: y2 = 10
6. Free Cash Flow per Share: fcf = $0.724. However, GuruFocus DCF calculator is actually a Discounted Earnings calculator, the EPS without NRI is used as the default. The reason we are doing this is we found that historically stock prices are more correlated with earnings than free cash flow.
All of the default settings can be changed and the results are calculated automatically.
The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for today is calculated as
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $11.68 mean?
The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) has a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $11.68 as of Jul. 21, 2026. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on The Swatch Group AG and its competitors. This is 723% above median its historical median of 1.42. Over the past decade, The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 1.42 to 1.42. According to the industry distribution chart, The Swatch Group AG ranks #999999 out of 128 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry.
Is The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) too high?
The Swatch Group AG's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $11.68 is 723% above median its 10-year median of 1.42. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 1.42 to a high of 1.42. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.66. The Swatch Group AG's value of $11.68 is 1683.2% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, The Swatch Group AG ranks #999999 out of 128 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, The Swatch Group AG has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) compare to TPR and SIG?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, The Swatch Group AG ranks #999999 out of 128 companies for Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based). This places The Swatch Group AG in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.66. The Swatch Group AG's value of $11.68 is 1683.2% above this benchmark. Historically, The Swatch Group AG's own Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) has ranged from 1.42 to 1.42 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.42 vs. the industry median of 0.66, The Swatch Group AG has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) among Retail - Cyclical companies is 0.66, based on 128 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. The Swatch Group AG's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) of $11.68 is 1683.2% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is the stock value based on a two-stage discounted free cash flow model. View historical data on The Swatch Group AG and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is 0.66 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. The Swatch Group AG's current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $11.68, which is 723% above median its own 10-year median of 1.42. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The Swatch Group AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $169.19, compared to a current price of $257.42 — trading 52.1% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $11.68, which is 723% above median its 10-year median of 1.42 and 1683.2% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 0.66. The Swatch Group AG's overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 10 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) calculated?
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF), the current Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is $11.68 as of Jul. 21, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The Swatch Group AG stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $257.42 is trading 52.1% above its estimated GF Value™ of $169.19.
GuruFocus considers The Swatch Group AG to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for SWGAF:
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based): $11.68 (723% above median its 10-year median of 1.42)
GF Value™: $169.19 vs. price of $257.42 (52.1% above fair value)
Industry Position: 1683.2% above the Retail - Cyclical median (#999999 of 128)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SWGAF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Swatch Group's biggest brands are Omega (number two or three in its category), Breguet, Tissot (the leader in midrange Swiss watches), and Swatch. The company employs over 32,000 people, half of them in Switzerland. We estimate Omega and Longines to be the group's most profitable brands.
69GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SWGAF
Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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