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The Swatch Group AGSWGAF 76 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $275.49 as of Jul. 31, 2026, which is 31206% above its 10-year median of 0.88. GuruFocus rates SWGAF with a GF Score™ of 76/100 and a GF Value™ of $192.35 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 5 warning signs investors should review. Among 766 Retail - Cyclical companies, The Swatch Group AG ranks worse than 53.66% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-07-31), The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $275.49. The stock price of The Swatch Group AG is $207.30. Therefore, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.8.
The historical rank and industry rank for The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
SWGAF'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.63 Med: 0.88 Max: 1.41
Current: 0.75
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of The Swatch Group AG was 1.41. The lowest was 0.63. And the median was 0.88.
SWGAF's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked worse than 53.66% of 766
companies
in the Retail - Cyclical industry
Industry Median: 0.78
vs SWGAF: 0.75
The Swatch Group AG (OTCPK:SWGAF) Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Explanation
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
207.30
/
250.45507121904
=
0.83
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Chart
SWGAF vs TPR, SIG: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Luxury Goods subindustry, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
The Swatch Group AG Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where The Swatch Group AG's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
The Swatch Group AG Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Calculation
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $275.49 mean?
The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $275.49 as of Jul. 31, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on The Swatch Group AG and its competitors. This is 31206% above median its historical median of 0.88. Over the past decade, The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.63 to 1.41. According to the industry distribution chart, The Swatch Group AG ranks #411 out of 766 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 53.7%.
Is The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
The Swatch Group AG's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $275.49 is 31206% above median its 10-year median of 0.88. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.63 to a high of 1.41. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.78. The Swatch Group AG's value of $275.49 is 35219.2% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, The Swatch Group AG ranks #411 out of 766 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, The Swatch Group AG has a GF Score™ of 76/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does The Swatch Group AG's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to TPR and SIG?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, The Swatch Group AG ranks #411 out of 766 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places The Swatch Group AG in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.78. The Swatch Group AG's value of $275.49 is 35219.2% above this benchmark. Historically, The Swatch Group AG's own Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF has ranged from 0.63 to 1.41 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 0.88 vs. the industry median of 0.78, The Swatch Group AG has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Retail - Cyclical companies is 0.78, based on 766 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. The Swatch Group AG's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $275.49 is 35219.2% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on The Swatch Group AG and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.78 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. The Swatch Group AG's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $275.49, which is 31206% above median its own 10-year median of 0.88. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is The Swatch Group AG stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $192.35, compared to a current price of $207.30 — trading 7.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $275.49, which is 31206% above median its 10-year median of 0.88 and 35219.2% above the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 0.78. The Swatch Group AG's overall GF Score™ is 76/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $275.49 as of Jul. 31, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is The Swatch Group AG (SWGAF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, The Swatch Group AG stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $207.30 is trading 7.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $192.35.
GuruFocus considers The Swatch Group AG to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for SWGAF:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $275.49 (31206% above median its 10-year median of 0.88)
GF Value™: $192.35 vs. price of $207.30 (7.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 35219.2% above the Retail - Cyclical median (#411 of 766)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SWGAF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Swatch Group's biggest brands are Omega (number two or three in its category), Breguet, Tissot (the leader in midrange Swiss watches), and Swatch. The company employs over 32,000 people, half of them in Switzerland. We estimate Omega and Longines to be the group's most profitable brands.
76GF Score
Get the complete analysis for SWGAF
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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