PDLB (Ponce Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Ponce Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Ponce Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Ponce Financial Group Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Ponce Financial Group Inc (NAS:PDLB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2244 Westchester Avenue, Bronx, NY, USA, 10462

Website

https://www.poncebank.com

Ponce Financial Group Inc, is a United States-based holding company. Its business consists of taking deposits from the general public and investing those deposits, together with funds generated from operations, in mortgage loans, consisting of one-to-four-family residential, multi-family residential, non-residential property and construction and land, and, to a lesser extent, business, and consumer loans. The company also invests in securities, which consists of securities issued by the U.S. Government and federal agencies and mortgage-backed securities issued by the United States government-sponsored enterprises. Some of the products and services include checking solutions, online and mobile banking, merchant credit card services, and others.

Executives

Carlos P Naudon	director, officer: President & CEO	70 WEST 36TH STREET, SUITE 604, NEW YORK NY 10018
Steven Tsavaris	director, officer: Executive Chairman	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Gonzalez Luis Gerardo Jr.	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O PONCE FINANCIAL GROUP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
David Rodriguez	officer: Chief Relationship Officer	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX MA 10462
Maria Alvarez	director	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Sergio Javier Vaccaro	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PONCE BANK, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVE., BRONX NY 10462
Nick R. Lugo	director	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
James Perez	director	C/O PONCE FINANCIAL GROUP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Elizabeth Macias	officer: Chief Information Officer	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVE., BRONX NY 10462
William Feldman	director	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Julio Gurman	director	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
James C. Demetriou	director	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Ioannis Kouzilos	officer: Chief Lending Officer	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Madeline V. Marquez	officer: Chief External Affairs Officer	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462
Frank Perez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O PDL COMMUNITY BANCORP, 2244 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, BRONX NY 10462