Finance of America (Finance of America) Predictability Rank

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What is Finance of America Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Finance of America Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Finance of America (Finance of America) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Finance of America Companies Inc (NYSE:FOA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5830 Granite Parkway, Suite 400, Plano, TX, USA, 75024

Website

https://www.financeofamerica.com

Finance of America Companies Inc provides a diverse selection of lending products and services. Its products include home loans, reverse mortgages, commercial loans and lender services. Its operating segments include Mortgage Originations, Reverse Originations, Commercial Originations, Lender Services, and Portfolio Management.

Executives

Kristen N Sieffert	officer: President	C/O FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INC., 5830 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 400, PLANO TX 75024
Reza Jahangiri	10 percent owner	C/O AMERICAN ADVISORS GROUP, INC., 18200 VON KARMAN AVENUE, SUITE 300, IRVINE CA 92612
Bloom Retirement Holdings Inc.	10 percent owner	3800 W. CHAPMAN AVENUE, THIRD FLOOR, ORANGE CA 92868
Lauren Richmond	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INC., 909 LAKE CAROLYN PARKWAY, SUITE 1550, IRVING TX 75039
Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - S - Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Associates - Nq L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Edmond Safra	10 percent owner	C/O REPLAY ACQUISITION CORP., 767 FIFTH AVENUE, 46TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
D1 Capital Partners L.p.	10 percent owner	9 WEST 57TH STREET, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Patricia Cook	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INC., 909 LAKE CAROLYN PARKWAY, SUITE 1550, IRVING TX 75039
Graham Fleming	officer: President	C/O FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INC., 909 LAKE CAROLYN PARKWAY, SUITE 1550, IRVING TX 75039
Brian L Libman	director, 10 percent owner	CLAYTON HOLDINGS, INC., 2 CORPORATE DRIVE, SHELTON CT 06484
Johan Gericke	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	C/O FINANCE OF AMERICA COMPANIES INC., 909 LAKE CAROLYN PARKWAY, SUITE 1550, IRVING TX 75039
Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - O - Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - L - Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Tactical Opportunities Fund - N - Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154