Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PagSeguro Digital (NYSE:PAGS) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
PagSeguro Digital Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
PAGS vs CALX, EEFT, STNE: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Software - Infrastructure subindustry, PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
PagSeguro Digital Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Software Industry
For the Software industry and Technology sector, PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
PagSeguro Digital Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-6.90
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% mean?
PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% as of Jun. 24, 2026.
Is PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
PagSeguro Digital's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. Overall, PagSeguro Digital has a GF Score™ of 90/100 and is considered Modestly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CALX and EEFT?
PagSeguro Digital's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.10% can be compared against companies in the Software industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Software company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Software industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. PagSeguro Digital's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is PagSeguro Digital stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) is currently considered Modestly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $11.93, compared to a current price of $8.77 — trading 26.5% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10%. PagSeguro Digital's overall GF Score™ is 90/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For PagSeguro Digital (PAGS), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.10% as of Jun. 24, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is PagSeguro Digital (PAGS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, PagSeguro Digital stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $8.77 is trading 26.5% below its estimated GF Value™ of $11.93.
GuruFocus considers PagSeguro Digital to be Modestly Undervalued.
Key valuation signals for PAGS:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.10%
GF Value™: $11.93 vs. price of $8.77 (26.5% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the PAGS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd is a Brazilian-based company that acts as a provider of financial technology solutions focused on Micro-Merchants, Small Companies and Medium-Sized Companies (SMEs), in Brazil. The company provides a range of solutions and tools such as cash-in and cash-out options and provides access to working capital to help to manage its cash flow. It delivers an end-to-end digital ecosystem to address day-to-day financial needs, including receiving and spending funds and managing and growing businesses for clients. The company also offers the Free PagSeguro Digital Account delivering Cash-In Solutions, Online and In-Person Payment Tools, Online Payment Tools; and Web Check Outs offer tokenization, handling of shipping information, and others.
90GF Score
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