Bankwell Financial Group (Bankwell Financial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is Bankwell Financial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bankwell Financial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bankwell Financial Group (Bankwell Financial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bankwell Financial Group Inc (NAS:BWFG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

258 Elm Street, New Canaan, CT, USA, 06840

Website

https://www.mybankwell.com

Bankwell Financial Group Inc is a bank holding company, engaged in providing financial products and services. It offers products related to commercial lending, retail lending, depository services, and others. The bank's commercial lending products include owner-occupied commercial real estate loans, commercial real estate investment loans, commercial loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and real estate construction and development loans. The retail lending products include residential mortgage loans, home equity lines of credit, and consumer installment loans. Its depository products include checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposit, noninterest-bearing demand, and time deposits.

Executives

Lawrence B Seidman	director	LANIDEX CORPORATE PARK, 100 LANIDEX PLAZA 1ST FL, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Eric J Dale	director	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Jeffrey R Dunne	director	90 BUTTERNUT LANE, SOUTHPORT CT 06890
Carl M Porto	director	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Blake S Drexler	director	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Christine Chivily	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 208 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Garnett James M Jr	director	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 208 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Todd Lampert	director	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Anahaita N. Kotval	director	C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Ryan Jason Hildebrand	officer: Chief Innovation Officer	32520 NE CORRAL CREEK ROAD, NEWBERG OR 97132
Christopher Gruseke	officer: Chief Strategic Officer	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Sacchetti Courtney E	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	258 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Laura Waitz	officer: EVP & Chief of Staff	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 208 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Darryl Demos	director	300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Richard Castiglioni	director	C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840