GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bankwell Financial Group Inc (NAS:BWFG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

BWFG (Bankwell Financial Group) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.07% (As of Dec. 14, 2024)


View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

What is Bankwell Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.07%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Banks - Regional subindustry, Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Banks Industry

For the Banks industry and Financial Services sector, Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


Bankwell Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.27

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.07%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For banks, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Money Market Investments) / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Bankwell Financial Group  (NAS:BWFG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Bankwell Financial Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Bankwell Financial Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Bankwell Financial Group Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Bankwell Financial Group Inc (NAS:BWFG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)
Comparable Companies
RVRF CHMG CBAN CFFI BLFY PKBK FFBB PLBC PDLB USCB NSE:HDFCBANK SHSE:600036 SAU:1120 NSE:ICICIBANK XPAR:BNP ISX:BBCA NSE:SBIN USB MIC:SBER SGX:D05
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
258 Elm Street, New Canaan, CT, USA, 06840
Website
https://www.mybankwell.com
Bankwell Financial Group Inc is a bank holding company, engaged in providing financial products and services. It offers products related to commercial lending, retail lending, depository services, and others. The bank's commercial lending products includes owner-occupied commercial real estate loans, commercial real estate investment loans, commercial loans to small and mid-sized businesses, and real estate construction and development loans. The retail lending products include residential mortgage loans, home equity lines of credit, and consumer installment loans. Its depository products include checking, savings, money market, certificates of deposit, noninterest-bearing demand, and time deposits.
Executives
Eric J Dale director C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Jeffrey R Dunne director 90 BUTTERNUT LANE, SOUTHPORT CT 06890
Carl M Porto director C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Lawrence B Seidman director LANIDEX CORPORATE PARK, 100 LANIDEX PLAZA 1ST FL, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Blake S Drexler director C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Christine Chivily officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 208 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Ryan Jason Hildebrand officer: Chief Innovation Officer 32520 NE CORRAL CREEK ROAD, NEWBERG OR 97132
Garnett James M Jr director C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 208 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Todd Lampert director C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Anahaita N. Kotval director C/O ONEMAIN HOLDINGS, INC., 601 N.W. SECOND STREET, EVANSVILLE IN 47708
Christopher Gruseke officer: Chief Strategic Officer C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 220 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Sacchetti Courtney E officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer 258 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Laura Waitz officer: EVP & Chief of Staff C/O BANKWELL FINANCIAL GROUP, INC., 208 ELM STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Darryl Demos director 300 COLONIAL CENTER PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ROSWELL GA 30076
Penko Krassimir Ivanov officer: EVP & Chief Accounting Officer C/O ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION, 250 GLEN STREET, GLENS FALLS NY 12801