GCBC (Greene County Bancorp) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1998. Start your Free Trial

What is Greene County Bancorp Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Greene County Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Greene County Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Greene County Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Greene County Bancorp Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Greene County Bancorp Inc (NAS:GCBC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

302 Main Street, Catskill, NY, USA, 12414

Website

https://www.tbogc.com

Greene County Bancorp Inc is a holding firm. Its primary business involves overseeing and directing the business of The Bank of Greene County and monitoring its cash position. Through its directly and indirectly owned subsidiaries, the company engages in attracting retail deposits, along with funds generated from operations and borrowings, predominantly in one to four-family residential mortgage loans, commercial real estate mortgage loans, consumer loans, home equity loans, and commercial business loans. It also serves local municipalities' banking needs and operates a real estate investment trust.

Executives

Tejraj S Hada	director	302 MAIN STREET, CATSKILL NY 12414
Jay P. Cahalan	director	302 MAIN STREET, CATSKILL NY 12414
Michelle M Plummer	officer: SVP, COO & CFO
Donald E Gibson	officer: President and CEO	302 MAIN STREET, CATSKILL NY 12414
Stephen E Nelson	officer: Vice President - Lending
Peter W. Hogan	director	302 MAIN STREET, CATSKILL NY 12414
Perry Martin Lasher	officer: EVP, Chief Lending Officer	302 MAIN STREET, CATSKILL NY 12414
Paul Slutzky	director
Charles H Schaefer	director
Arthur Place	director	425 MAIN STREET, CATSKILL NY 12414
Dennis R Ogrady	director
J Bruce Whittaker	director, officer: President & CEO
Bruce P Egger	officer: SVP, Corporate Secretary
David H Jenkins	director
Martin C Smith	director