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Harley-Davidson Inc  (NYSE:HOG) E10: $2.86 (As of Sep. 2017)

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years.

Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2017 was $0.400. Add all the adjusted EPS for the past 10 years together and divide 10 will get our e10, which is $2.86 for the trailing ten years ended in Sep. 2017.

As of today, Harley-Davidson Inc's current stock price is $47.68. Harley-Davidson Inc's E10 for the quarter that ended in Sep. 2017 was $2.86. Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller PE Ratio of today is 16.67.

During the past 13 years, the highest Shiller PE Ratio of Harley-Davidson Inc was 34.87. The lowest was 3.03. And the median was 16.78.


Historical Data

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

* Premium members only.

Harley-Davidson Inc Annual Data

Dec07 Dec08 Dec09 Dec10 Dec11 Dec12 Dec13 Dec14 Dec15 Dec16
E10 Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.80 2.86 2.88 2.86 2.83

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

Dec12 Mar13 Jun13 Sep13 Dec13 Mar14 Jun14 Sep14 Dec14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Jun16 Sep16 Dec16 Mar17 Jun17 Sep17
E10 Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 2.92 2.83 2.88 2.92 2.86

Competitive Comparison
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap.


Calculation

E10 is a concept invented by Prof. Robert Shiller, who uses E10 for his Shiller P/E calculation. When we calculate the today's Shiller P/E ratio of a stock, we use today’s price divided by E10.

What is E10? How do we calculate E10?

E10 is the average of the inflation adjusted earnings of a company over the past 10 years. Let's use an example to explain.

If we want to calculate the E10 of Wal-Mart (WMT) for Dec. 31, 2010, we need to have the inflation data and the earnings from 2001 through 2010.

We adjusted the earnings of 2001 earnings data with the total inflation from 2001 through 2010 to the equivalent earnings in 2010. If the total inflation from 2001 to 2010 is 40%, and Wal-Mart earned $1 a share in 2001, then the 2001's equivalent earnings in 2010 is $1.4 a share. If Wal-Mart earns $1 again in 2002, and the total inflation from 2002 through 2010 is 35%, then the equivalent 2002 earnings in 2010 is $1.35. So on and so forth, you get the equivalent earnings of past 10 years. Then you add them together and divided the sum by 10 to get E10.

For example, Harley-Davidson Inc's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Sep. 2017 was:

Adj_EPS= Earnings per Share (Diluted) /CPI of Sep. 2017 (Change)*Current CPI (Sep. 2017)
=0.4/246.819*246.819
=0.400

Current CPI (Sep. 2017) = 246.819.

Harley-Davidson Inc Quarterly Data

per share eps CPI Adj_EPS
200712 0.790 210.036 0.928
200803 0.790 213.528 0.913
200806 0.950 218.815 1.072
200809 0.710 218.783 0.801
200812 0.340 210.228 0.399
200903 0.500 212.709 0.580
200906 0.080 215.693 0.092
200909 0.110 215.969 0.126
200912 -0.940 215.949 -1.074
201003 0.140 217.631 0.159
201006 0.300 217.965 0.340
201009 0.380 218.439 0.429
201012 -0.200 219.179 -0.225
201103 0.510 223.467 0.563
201106 0.810 225.722 0.886
201109 0.780 226.889 0.849
201112 0.460 225.672 0.503
201203 0.740 229.392 0.796
201206 1.070 229.478 1.151
201209 0.590 231.407 0.629
201212 0.320 229.601 0.344
201303 0.990 232.773 1.050
201306 1.210 233.504 1.279
201309 0.730 234.149 0.770
201312 0.350 233.049 0.371
201403 1.210 236.293 1.264
201406 1.620 238.343 1.678
201409 0.690 238.031 0.715
201412 0.360 234.812 0.378
201503 1.270 236.119 1.328
201506 1.440 238.638 1.489
201509 0.690 237.945 0.716
201512 0.280 236.525 0.292
201603 1.360 238.132 1.410
201606 1.550 241.018 1.587
201609 0.640 241.428 0.654
201612 0.280 241.432 0.286
201703 1.050 243.801 1.063
201706 1.480 244.955 1.491
201709 0.400 246.819 0.400

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our e10.


Explanation

If a company grows much fast than inflation, E10 may underestimate the company's earnings power. Shiller PE Ratio can seem to be too high even the actual P/E is low.

For the Shiller P/E, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller P/E is also called PE10.

The Shiller P/E was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Harley-Davidson Inc's Shiller P/E Ratio of today is calculated as

Shiller PE Ratio=Share Price/E10
=47.68/2.86
=16.67

* All numbers are in millions except for per share data and ratio. All numbers are in their local exchange's currency.

During the past 13 years, the highest Shiller P/E Ratio of Harley-Davidson Inc was 34.87. The lowest was 3.03. And the median was 16.78.


Be Aware

Shiller PE Ratio works better for cyclical companies. It gives you a better idea on the company's real earnings power.


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