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Harley-DavidsonHOG +3.38%81 Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $79.89 as of Sep. 12, 2026. GuruFocus rates HOG with a GF Score™ of 81/100 and a GF Value™ of $26.81 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 10 warning signs investors should review. Among 939 Vehicles & Parts companies, Harley-Davidson ranks better than 85.73% on this metric.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company. The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
As of today (2026-09-12), Harley-Davidson's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $79.89. The stock price of Harley-Davidson is $27.87. Therefore, Harley-Davidson's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of today is 0.4.
The historical rank and industry rank for Harley-Davidson's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF or its related term are showing as below:
HOG'
s Price-to-Projected-FCF Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.27 Med: 0.57 Max: 1.06
Current: 0.35
During the past 13 years, the highest Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF of Harley-Davidson was 1.06. The lowest was 0.27. And the median was 0.57.
HOG's Price-to-Projected-FCF is ranked better than 85.73% of 939
companies
in the Vehicles & Parts industry
Industry Median: 0.92
vs HOG: 0.35
The growth multiple is capped between 8.35 and 17.74.
Total Stockholders Equity weighting is more art than science and it should always be revisited in more detail when researching a company. Weightings from 0% to 100% to more than 100% are possible. 80% was chosen as a happy median after taking the above ideas into consideration.
Harley-Davidson's Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF for today is calculated as
Price-to-Intrinsic-Value-Projected-FCF
=
Share Price
/
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF
=
27.87
/
79.888668141313
=
0.35
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Harley-Davidson Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Related Terms
Harley-Davidson Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Historical Data
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The historical data trend for Harley-Davidson's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
HOG vs PATK, LCII, PII: Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF Comparison
For the Recreational Vehicles subindustry, Harley-Davidson's Price-to-Projected-FCF, along with its competitors' market caps and Price-to-Projected-FCF data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Harley-Davidson Price-to-Projected-FCF vs Vehicles & Parts Industry
For the Vehicles & Parts industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Harley-Davidson's Price-to-Projected-FCF distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Harley-Davidson's Price-to-Projected-FCF falls into.
Since the intrinsic value calculations based on Discounted Cash Flow Intrinsic Value: DCF (FCF Based), or Discounted Earnings Intrinsic Value: DCF (Earnings Based) cannot be applied to companies without consistent revenue and earnings, GuruFocus developed a valuation model based on normalized Free Cash Flow and Book Value of the company.
The details of how we calculate the intrinsic value of stocks are described in detail here.
This method smooths out the free cash flow over the past 6-7 years, multiplies the results by a growth multiple, and adds a portion of Total Stockholders Equity.
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $79.89 mean?
Harley-Davidson (HOG) has a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $79.89 as of Sep. 12, 2026. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Harley-Davidson and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Harley-Davidson ranks #134 out of 939 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, placing it in the top 14.3%.
Is Harley-Davidson's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF too high?
Harley-Davidson's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $79.89. The Vehicles & Parts industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.92. Harley-Davidson's value of $79.89 is 8583.7% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Harley-Davidson ranks #134 out of 939 companies in the Vehicles & Parts industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Harley-Davidson has a GF Score™ of 81/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Harley-Davidson's Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF compare to PATK and LCII?
According to the Vehicles & Parts industry distribution chart, Harley-Davidson ranks #134 out of 939 companies for Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF. This places Harley-Davidson in the top 14% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.92. Harley-Davidson's value of $79.89 is 8583.7% above this benchmark. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF for a Vehicles & Parts company?
The median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF among Vehicles & Parts companies is 0.92, based on 939 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Harley-Davidson's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF of $79.89 is 8583.7% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF mean?
A high Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is the stock value based on a projected free cash flow model. View historical data on Harley-Davidson and its competitors. For the Vehicles & Parts industry, the median Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is 0.92 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Harley-Davidson's current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $79.89. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Harley-Davidson stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Harley-Davidson (HOG) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $26.81, compared to a current price of $27.87 — trading 4% above its estimated fair value. The current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $79.89 and 8583.7% above the Vehicles & Parts industry median of 0.92. Harley-Davidson's overall GF Score™ is 81/100 with 10 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF calculated?
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Harley-Davidson (HOG), the current Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is $79.89 as of Sep. 12, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Harley-Davidson (HOG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Harley-Davidson stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $27.87 is trading 4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $26.81.
GuruFocus considers Harley-Davidson to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for HOG:
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF: $79.89
GF Value™: $26.81 vs. price of $27.87 (4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 8583.7% above the Vehicles & Parts median (#134 of 939)
No single metric tells the full story. See the HOG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Harley-Davidson is a leading global manufacturer of heavyweight motorcycles across the custom, cruising, and touring categories, as well as related merchandise, parts, and accessories. In recent years, the firm has expanded into the adventure touring market with its Pan America model, into electric with the LiveWire brand, and is returning to smaller-displacement bikes with the Sprint. Its captive finance arm, Harley-Davidson Financial Services, provides wholesale financing to dealers and retail financing and insurance brokerage services to customers. Harley captured around 34% of the heavyweight domestic market in 2025.
81GF Score
Get the complete analysis for HOG
Intrinsic Value: Projected FCF is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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