PRPL (Purple Innovation) Predictability Rank

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What is Purple Innovation Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Purple Innovation Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Purple Innovation Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Purple Innovation Inc (NAS:PRPL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

4100 North Chapel Ridge Road, Suite 200, Lehi, UT, USA, 84043

Website

https://www.purple.com

Purple Innovation Inc is a comfort innovation company. The company designs, manufactures and sells a range of comfort technology offerings, including mattresses, a pillow, cushions, sheets, bed platforms and other products. The Company has one reportable segment that operates an omni-channel distribution which allows the Company to offer a seamless shopping experience to its customers across multiple sales channels. It sells its products through its direct-to-consumer e-commerce channels, retail brick-and-mortar wholesale partners, Purple showrooms, and third-party online retailers.

Executives

Robert Demartini	director, officer: Acting CEO	102 WHITE PINE CANYON ROAD, PARK CITY UT 84060
George Turner Ulrich	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	3838 EVERGREEN DR, OGDEN UT 84414
Jack Roddy	officer: Chief People Officer	C/O SEAWORLD ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 9205 SOUTH PARK CENTER LOOP, SUITE 400, ORLANDO FL 32819
Tricia Mcdermott	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O PURPLE INNOVATION, INC., 4100 NORTH CHAPEL RIDGE RD., SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043
Todd E. Vogensen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	11215 METRO PARKWAY, FORT MYERS FL 33966
Gary T Dicamillo	director	888 WASHINGTON STREET, DEDHAM MA 02027
Douglas Scott Peterson	director	4100 N. CHAPEL RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043
Casey Kale Mcgarvey	officer: Chief Legal Officer and Sec.	123 EAST 200 NORTH, ALPINE UT 84004
Jeffery Scott Kerby	officer: Chief of Owned Retail	4100 N. CHAPEL RIDGE RD, SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043
Seth Lane Darling	director	4100 N. CHAPEL RIDGE RD, SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043
R Carter Pate	director	5739 WORTHAM LANE, DALLAS TX 75252
Erika Serow	director	4100 N. CHAPEL RIDGE ROAD, SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043
Eric Scott Haynor	officer: Chief Operating Officer	4100 N. CHAPEL RIDGE RD, SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043
Coliseum Capital Management, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	105 ROWAYTON AVENUE, ROWAYTON CT 06853
Keira Krausz	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	4100 N. CHAPEL RIDGE RD, SUITE 200, LEHI UT 84043